Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Porto		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.05	11	21	Watch
	1.05	11	34	Watch
	1.08	11.24	28.55	Watch
	1.08	11	26
	1.09	12.9	28	Watch
	1.07	10	31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.07 ↓ (1.1)	11.19 ↑ (7.9)	28.09 ↑ (21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
88.2%

Draw
8.4%

AVS
3.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

83.9%

11.7%

4.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	2.6%	7.9%

Porto - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 34 - 89.5%). AVS will win (votes: 3 - 7.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 79.8% – 99.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Porto (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.40) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 20 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 13. Rosario P. 86. Mora R. 7. William Gomes 9. Samu 11. Pepê	93. Simao (G) 26. Ponck 33. Santos A. 42. Devenish C. 2. Spencer D. 8. Pedro Lima 15. Grau J. (C) 12. Rivas D. 11. Akinsola T. 7. Tomane 14. Perea O.
Substitutes
47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 75. Karamoh Y. 21. Prpic D. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G.	6. Assuncao G. 10. Barbosa R. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 24. Kiki 17. Lourenco B. 23. Mendonca G. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 3. Paulo Vitor
Coaches
Farioli F.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Costa D. ↓, Claudio Ramos ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽, Pepê (A),
50', Grau J. 🟨,
52', William Gomes 🟨,
58', Grau J. ↓, Assuncao G. ↑,
58', Perea O. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
59', William Gomes ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
59', Mora R. ↓, Alarcon A. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Samu (Penalty Awarded),
71', Pedro Lima ↓, Mendonca G. ↑,
75', Moura F. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
82', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
82', Spencer D. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
84', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

AVS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Porto is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Sainz B. (Yellow Cards) Zaidu (International duty) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive) Semedo R. (Red Card)

There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Porto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 3.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Porto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Porto - Malmö	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWW
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.03.25	Porto - AVS	2:0
28.10.24	AVS - Porto	0:5

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