Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 10

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5, Ziggo Sport
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Porto		Braga

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.52	3.95	6.4	Watch
	1.60	4.04	5.35	Watch
				Watch
	1.57	4.21	6.39	Watch
	1.59	4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.5)	4.02 ↓ (4.3)	6.09 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Porto
60.9%

Draw
23.5%

Braga
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

21.9%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

24.3%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	4.5%	13.6%

Porto - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Braga (2.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Braga (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Braga (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 7. William Gomes 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 9. Samu	1. Hornicek L. (G) 2. Gomez V. 14. Lagerbielke G. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 20. Dorgeles M. 27. Grillitsch F. 29. Gorby 5. Lelo L. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P. 21. Horta R. (C)
Substitutes
47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 52. Fernandes M. 27. Gul D. 21. Prpic D. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 10. Veiga G.	9. El Ouazzani A. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 77. Martinez G. 8. Moutinho J. 39. Navarro F. 4. Niakate S. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D. 12. Sa T. (G)
Coaches
Farioli F.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Moura F. 🟨,
34', Farioli F. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Mora R. ⚽, Samu (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Gomez V. ⚽, Zalazar R. (A),
57', Moura F. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
57', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
62', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
62', Grillitsch F. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
63', Moutinho J. 🟨,
64', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
64', Pepê ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
66', Bednarek J. 🟨,
73', William Gomes ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
78', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Sainz B. ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
81', Fernandes M. 🟨,
84', Lelo L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
89', Gorby ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 4.

Porto is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Braga is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Porto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vitor Carvalho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Perez T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 2.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Porto - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.86%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
27.10.25	Moreirense - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Celoricense - Porto	0:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Porto - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWTW
- SC Braga
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Braga - Santa Clara	5:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Braga - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Bragança - Braga	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.03.25	Braga - Porto	1:0
06.10.24	Porto - Braga	2:1
18.05.24	Braga - Porto	0:1
14.01.24	Porto - Braga	2:0
Taça de Portugal
04.06.23	Braga - Porto	0:2
Liga Portugal
19.03.23	Braga - Porto	0:0
30.09.22	Porto - Braga	4:1

Upcoming Matches