Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	RTS 1
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football, Supersport Maximo 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Porto		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	5.25
	1.65	4.35	5
	1.62	4.23	5.35
	1.23	6.53	9.99	Watch
	1.61	4.27	5.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.43)	4.72 ↓ (4.84)	6.25 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
63.5%

Draw
20.8%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
15.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.3%

19.9%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

18.8%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6%	7.2%

Porto - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Porto (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Crvena Zvezda (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Porto (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (72 of 83 users predict this - 86.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.46% – 94.04%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 38 - 88.4%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 3 - 7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 5. Bednarek J. 21. Prpic D. 12. Zaidu 86. Mora R. 6. Eustaquio S. 13. Rosario P. 7. William Gomes 27. Gul D. 47. Alarcon A.	1. Matheus (G) 66. Seol Young-Woo 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 13. Veljkovic M. 23. Tiknizyan N. 20. Handel T. 21. Elsnik T. 49. Radonjic N. 22. Kostov V. 4. Ivanic M. (C) 89. Arnautovic M.
Substitutes
73. Bras G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 24. Costa J. (G) 8. Froholdt V. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 17. Sainz B. 9. Samu 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G.	71. Avdic A. 6. Bajo M. 17. Bruno Duarte 18. Glazer O. (G) 77. Gutesa I. (G) 25. Lekovic S. 37. Lucic V. 7. Milson 14. Olayinka P. 5. Rodrigo 24. Stankovic N. 40. Zaric L.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Milojevic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Tebo Uchenna F. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, William Gomes (Pen),
32', Mora R. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Kostov V. ⚽, Veljkovic M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
46', Bednarek J. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
47', Prpic D. 🟨,
62', Alarcon A. ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
62', William Gomes ↓, Pepê ↑,
69', Tiknizyan N. 🟨,
71', Radonjic N. ↓, Milson ↑,
74', Gul D. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
82', Arnautovic M. ↓, Bruno Duarte ↑,
82', Kostov V. ↓, Olayinka P. ↑,
82', Tiknizyan N. ↓, Stankovic N. ↑,
88', Costa A. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Mora R. ⚽, Pepê (A),
90+3', Elsnik T. ↓, Bajo M. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Porto has had a series of away games.

In this match, Porto is the team to beat.

There will not play in Porto: Karamoh Y. (Inactive) Perez N. (Injury) Perez T. (International duty) de Jong L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Crvena Zvezda: Babicka S. (Inactive) Katai A. (Knee Injury) Krunic R. (Muscle Injury) Sandoval K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Samu (Injury)

We predict that Porto will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Porto - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 67.28%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
29.09.25	Arouca - Porto	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWWW
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
28.09.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Radnički 1923	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Celtic	1:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
20.09.25	Partizan - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Železničar Pančevo	7:1 ✺
31.08.25	Novi Pazar - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWWW

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