Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Porto

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3.4
	2.35	3.2	3.3
	2.4	3.19	3.33
	2.32	3.17	3.33	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.48	3.14	3.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.2)	3.13 ↓ (3.34)	3.28 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
40.4%

Draw
30.5%

Porto
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

30.3%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	38.5%	30.8%

Nottingham Forest - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Nottingham will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Porto will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22% – 61.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Porto (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Ortega S. (G) 34. Aina O. 23. Cunha 5. Murillo 3. Williams N. 6. Sangare I. 16. Dominguez N. 21. Hutchinson O. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 14. Ndoye D. 11. Wood Ch.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 3. Thiago Silva 5. Bednarek J. 12. Zaidu 42. Fofana S. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 29. Moffi T. 17. Sainz B.
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 29. Bakwa D. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 19. Igor Jesus 20. Lucca L. 24. McAtee J. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 26. Sels M. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 67. Willows K. (G) 22. Yates R.	73. Bras G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 24. Costa J. (G) 8. Froholdt V. 27. Gul D. 4. Kiwior J. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 21. Prpic D. 58. Silva T. 22. Varela A.
Coaches
Pereira V.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Bednarek J. 🟥,
12', 1 - 0, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
16', Wood Ch. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
32', Moffi T. 🟨,
36', Costa A. 🟨,
40', Hutchinson O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zaidu ↓, Moura F. ↑,
46', Veiga G. ↓, Kiwior J. ↑,
46', Costa A. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
46', Sainz B. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
46', Hutchinson O. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
65', Ndoye D. ↓, Milenkovic N. ↑,
66', Moffi T. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
72', Murillo ↓, Morato ↑,
72', Hudson-Odoi C. ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,
90', William Gomes 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nottingham might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Nottingham: Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Boly W. (Knee Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Netz L. (Inactive) Savona N. (Knee Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Injury) Karamoh Y. (Inactive) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pietuszewski O. (Inactive) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Anderson E. (Personal Reasons) Cunha (Foot Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Midtjylland - Nottingham Forest	1:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
15.03.26	Nottingham Forest - Fulham	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TTWWT
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
12.04.26	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Porto - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Braga - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0

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