Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)


	Portsmouth		Aston Villa U21

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.8	7
	1.33	4.8	7.25
	1.34	5	6.6
	1.37	5.01	7.55
	1.33	5.05	6.95
	1.33	5	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.73)	4.94 ↑ (3.75)	6.99 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
68.4%

Draw
18.5%

Aston Villa U21
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

23.8%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

22.8%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Aston Villa U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aston Villa U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa U21 than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	7.1%	14.3%

Portsmouth - Aston Villa U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Recent matches Portsmouth is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aston Villa U21 is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Aston Villa U21 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Portsmouth is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League One
01.10.22	Ipswich Town - Portsmouth	3:2 ✺
17.09.22	Portsmouth - Plymouth Argyle	2:2 ✺
13.09.22	Burton Albion - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Portsmouth - Peterborough United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Crawley Town - Portsmouth	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTWWL
- Aston Villa U21
English Premier League 2
30.09.22	Aston Villa U21 - West Bromwich Albion U21	2:6 ✺
18.09.22	Stoke City U21 - Aston Villa U21	3:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	AFC Wimbledon - Aston Villa U21	2:1 ✺
English Premier League Cup
26.08.22	Aston Villa U21 - Peterborough United U21	1:1 ✺
English Premier League 2
19.08.22	Aston Villa U21 - Leeds United U21	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTL

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