Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 37

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Donohue M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Portsmouth		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5
	1.59	3.95	5.91	Watch
	1.59	3.95	6.32
	1.59	3.85	6.18	Watch
	1.6	3.75	6
	1.58	3.86	6.25	Watch
	1.59	3.95	5.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.87)	3.9 ↑ (3.5)	5.95 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
59.6%

Draw
24.4%

Plymouth Argyle
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

26.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

25.8%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Plymouth Argyle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Plymouth Argyle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Plymouth Argyle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	4%	8%

Portsmouth - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (42 of 48 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.14% – 96.86%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Schmid N. (G) 22. Swanson Z. 5. Poole R. 7. Pack M. (C) 3. Ogilvie C. 21. Dozzell A. 8. Potts F. 30. Ritchie M. 17. Aouchiche A. 23. Murphy J. 9. Bishop C.	21. Hazard C. (G) 40. Talovierov M. 25. Katic N. (C) 5. Pleguezuelo J. 29. Sorinola M. 4. Houghton J. 18. Gyabi D. 17. Puchacz T. 14. Obafemi M. 9. Hardie R. 15. Bundu M.
Substitutes
31. Archer J. (G) 18. Bramall C. 24. Devlin T. 14. Gordon K. 45. Hayden I. 11. O'Mahony M. 4. Towler R. 20. Waddingham T. 10. Yengi K.	28. Al Hajj R. 19. Boateng M. 8. Edwards J. 31. Grimshaw D. (G) 35. Issaka F. 2. Mumba B. 3. Ogbeta N. 6. Szucs K. 11. Wright C.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Bundu M. ⚽, Hardie R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 2, Hardie R. ⚽,
52', Obafemi M. ↓, Wright C. ↑,
55', Ritchie M. ↓, Gordon K. ↑,
55', Pack M. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,
62', Potts F. ↓, O'Mahony M. ↑,
64', Pleguezuelo J. ↓, Szucs K. ↑,
64', Hardie R. ↓, Mumba B. ↑,
67', Sorinola M. 🟨,
77', Bundu M. ↓, Ogbeta N. ↑,
86', Sorinola M. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Aouchiche A. ⚽,
90+6', Gyabi D. 🟨,
90+7', Bramall C. 🟨,
90+9', Aouchiche A. 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 17 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 0.

Portsmouth is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Plymouth is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Portsmouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Portsmouth is a favorite.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Bowat I. (Tendon Injury) Farrell J. (Leg Injury) Lane P. (Knee Injury) Lang C. (Hamstring Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Hamstring Injury) Williams J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Plymouth: Galloway B. (Hip Injury) Tijani M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Aouchiche A. (Injury) Atkinson R. (Calf Injury) Matthews H. (Ankle Injury) Milosevic A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Plymouth: Randell A. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Portsmouth to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 4 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 27:30 (average 1.4:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 19:15 (average 1.9:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
09.03.25	Portsmouth - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Luton Town - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Portsmouth - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Oxford United - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
11.02.25	Portsmouth - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WLWWW
- Plymouth Argyle
English League Championship
08.03.25	Plymouth Argyle - Sheffield Wednesday	0:3 ✺
04.03.25	Hull City - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.03.25	Manchester City - Plymouth Argyle	3:1 ✺
English League Championship
22.02.25	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
05.11.24	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	1:0
English League One
11.02.23	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	3:1
17.09.22	Portsmouth - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
15.03.22	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	1:0
21.09.21	Portsmouth - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
06.02.21	Portsmouth - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
16.11.20	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	2:2

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