Match Info

Paulista A3 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ulrico Mursa (Santos)


	Portuguesa Santista		Marília

	1	X	2
	1.8	2.98	4.55
	1.8	2.99	4.5
	1.84	2.95	4.73	Watch
	1.85	2.8	4.5
	1.78	3.19	4.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.06)	2.98 ↑ (2.93)	4.63 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa Santista
50%

Draw
30.4%

Marília
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

31%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

31.1%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa Santista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portuguesa Santista's performance.

Marília has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marília might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa Santista than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portuguesa Santista that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marília than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marília could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Portuguesa Santista - Marília Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Yohan ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+3', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 2-2. Second leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Portuguesa Santista may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Portuguesa Santista is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa Santista won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa Santista
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.04.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Preto	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Rio Preto - Portuguesa Santista	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Portuguesa Santista - Paulista	2:0 penalties ✺
28.03.26	Paulista - Portuguesa Santista	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTWWL
- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.04.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Marília - XV de Jaú	3:2 penalties ✺
12.04.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:0 penalties ✺
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.04.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	2:2
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0

Portuguesa Santista - Marília: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide