Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Probiy Horodenka		Poltava

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.75	1.53
	4.7	3.7	1.62
	4.55	3.65	1.58
	4.66	3.77	1.65	Watch
	4.71	3.72	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.72 ↓ (5.3)	3.72 ↓ (3.95)	1.6 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Probiy Horodenka
19.1%

Draw
24.3%

Poltava
56.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.2%

23%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

22.9%

60.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Probiy Horodenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Poltava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Probiy Horodenka than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poltava than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Probiy Horodenka - Poltava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Arkhypchuk K. (G) 18. Bliznichenko A. (C) 98. Fesenko A. 13. Galonskyi V. 21. Girnyi M. 16. Guk I. 6. Ivanychuk V. 30. Lepskyi O. 19. Napuda V. 5. Savchyn V. 7. Savitskyi A.	1. Minchev M. (G) 28. Blagodarnyi D. 19. Buzhyn M. 15. Danylenko V. (C) 7. Galenkov D. 11. Kasimov D. 17. Kobzar B. 2. Kononov M. 8. Odaryuk V. 22. Prikhna D. 10. Sad V.
Substitutes
12. Barabanov V. (G) 44. Batz M. 56. Borysenko M. 8. Drygan B. 99. Goncharuk D. 15. Kharuk R. 25. Kovalenko M. A. (G) 4. Kozachuk A. 14. Matveev K. 10. Orynchak B. 2. Radulskyi V. 70. Yaroshenko S.	95. Kotsyumaka I. 20. Krokhmal N. 5. Pidlepych V. 27. Serbinov D. 21. Tlumak Y. 88. Vivdych O. 96. Yermolov D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Fesenko A. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Sad V. ⚽,
24', 🟨,
25', 1 - 2, Odaryuk V. ⚽,
37', 🟨,
41', 2 - 2, Napuda V. ⚽,
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 3 - 2, Guk I. ⚽,
84', Lepskyi O. 🟨,
90+3', 🟥,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 16th in the Relegation - Druha Liga and 3rd in the Promotion - Persha Liga (Relegation: )).

Recent results have been tough for Probiy (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Poltava has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Probiy may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Poltava carries the favorite tag into this contest.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	SC Poltava	13	7	3	3	24:11	13	24
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	12:32	-20	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Probiy Horodenka
Ukrainian Persha Liga
04.10.26	Kulykiv-Bilka - Probiy Horodenka	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Probiy Horodenka - Lokomotyv Kyiv	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Kolos Kovalivka 2 - Probiy Horodenka	4:2 ✺
13.09.26	Probiy Horodenka - Feniks-Mariupol	0:2 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
09.09.26	Probiy Horodenka - Oleksandriya	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLLL
- SC Poltava
Ukrainian Persha Liga
02.10.26	Poltava - Chernihiv	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Kulykiv-Bilka - Poltava	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Poltava - Metalist Kharkiv	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Lokomotyv Kyiv - Poltava	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Poltava - Inhulets	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWLT

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