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Current Win Probability
Puebla 19.8%
Draw 23.6%
Cruz Azul 56.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
26.3%
25.2%
48.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26%
24.9%
49%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Puebla's form might have worsened.
Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cruz Azul's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Puebla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruz Azul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.1%
0%
88.9%
Puebla - Cruz Azul Predictions
Users Predictions:
Cruz Azul will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%). Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cruz Azul will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
33. Rodriguez J. (G) 195. de la Rosa A. 192. Navarro E. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 4. Orona E. 6. Diaz N. (C) 15. Guerra E. 24. Organista A. 3. Rey L. 11. Gomez E. 19. Marin R.
23. Mier K. (G) 4. Ditta W. 6. Lira E. (C) 5. Orozco J. 194. Morales A. 19. Rodriguez C. 16. Marquez J. 3. Campos O. 20. Paradela J. 7. Bogusz M. 21. Fernandez G.
Substitutes
32. Araos A. 22. Baltazar C. 18. Gamarra P. 27. Garnica B. 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 191. Hernandez B. 17. Lozano E. 7. Monarrez F. 8. Ramirez M. 14. Rivas J.
8. Faravelli L. 17. Garcia A. 1. Gudino A. (G) 214. Levy M. 15. Rivero I. 18. Romero L. 200. Sanchez E. 2. Sanchez J. 9. Sepulveda A. 239. Valdez D.
Coaches
Cristante H.
Larcamon N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Bogusz M. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rey L. ↓, Monarrez F. ↑,
50', Navarro E. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Marquez J. ⚽, Fernandez G. (A),
60', Marin R. ↓, Araos A. ↑,
60', Navarro E. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
60', Guerra E. ↓, Gamarra P. ↑,
64', Bogusz M. ↓, Rivero I. ↑,
66', Gamarra P. 🟨,
72', Fernandez G. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
73', Paradela J. ↓, Faravelli L. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Campos O. ⚽, Sepulveda A. (A),
85', Rodriguez C. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
85', Marquez J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 1.
Puebla has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
In recent matches, Cruz Azul has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Cruz Azul is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Cruz Azul: Montano A.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Puebla: Fedorco J.
(Ankle Injury)
Moyano F.
(Inactive)
Rivas J.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Cruz Azul: Bogusz M.
(Illness)
Piovi G.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).
Mexico
South-america
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Rodriguez J. (G) 
Diaz N. (C) 
Guerra E. 
Gomez E. 
Paradela J. 
Bogusz M. 
Gamarra P. 
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