Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Universitario (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX One, Fox Sports, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
Usa	TUDN


	Tigres UANL		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	4.1
	1.85	3.55	3.95
	1.91	3.63	4.29
	1.88	3.6	4.12	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.8
	1.88	3.55	4.37	Watch
	1.9	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (3.15)	3.52 ↑ (3.35)	4.09 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigres UANL
50.2%

Draw
26.8%

Cruz Azul
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28.2%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

27.8%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tigres UANL's performance.

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruz Azul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-20.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tigres UANL that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+19.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruz Azul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	10.5%	10.5%

Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Tigres will win (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Cruz Azul will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tigres: 60.6% – 97.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tigres UANL will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 2. Joaquim 27. Angulo J. 3. Farfan M. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 23. Romulo 16. Lainez D. 7. Correa A. 11. Brunetta J. 10. Gignac A.	1. Gudino A. (C) 4. Ditta W. 6. Lira E. 33. Piovi G. 16. Marquez J. 8. Faravelli L. 29. Rotondi C. 3. Campos O. 21. Fernandez G. 15. Rivero I. 9. Sepulveda A.
Substitutes
22. Antuna U. 20. Aquino J. 24. Flores M. 33. Guerrero R. 77. Herrera O. 19. Lopez I. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 35. Rodriguez O. 4. Sanchez J. 6. Vigon J.	7. Bogusz M. 214. Levy M. 194. Morales A. 30. Ochoa E. (G) 5. Orozco J. 20. Paradela J. 161. Rodarte J. 19. Rodriguez C. 18. Romero L. 2. Sanchez J.
Coaches
Pizarro G.	Larcamon N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Brunetta J. ⚽, Gignac A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Faravelli L. ↓, Paradela J. ↑,
53', Sepulveda A. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
57', Angulo J. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
58', Gignac A. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
60', Rotondi C. 🟨,
63', Campos O. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
63', Rotondi C. ↓, Orozco J. ↑,
72', Fernandez G. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Marquez J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
78', Brunetta J. ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Sanchez J. (Own goal),

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tigres might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cruz Azul: Mier K. (Injury) Montano A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Ibanez N. (Injury) Tapia F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Cruz Azul - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.91%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
03.12.25	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	5:0 ✺
27.11.25	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tigres UANL - Atlético San Luis	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Monterrey - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWLWT
- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
03.12.25	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Cruz Azul - Chivas Guadalajara	3:2 ✺
27.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Cruz Azul	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Cruz Azul - UNAM	2:3 ✺
31.10.25	Puebla - Cruz Azul	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
03.12.25	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:1
04.10.25	Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul	1:1
CONCACAF Champions Cup
01.05.25	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:0
23.04.25	Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul	1:1
Mexican Liga MX
15.02.25	Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul	2:1
09.11.24	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:1
17.02.24	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:0

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