Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Moja TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Puszcza Niepołomice		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.6	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.58
	5.5	4	1.57	Watch
	5.87	3.9	1.62
	5.51	3.88	1.64	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.5
	5.49	3.88	1.6	Watch
	5.5	4	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.55 ↑ (4.88)	3.92 ↑ (3.82)	1.59 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puszcza Niepołomice
16.9%

Draw
23.9%

Lech Poznań
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

24.6%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

23.5%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	3.3%	83.3%

Puszcza Niepołomice - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Komar K. (G) 22. Craciun A. 27. Solowiej L. 3. Yakuba R. 12. Stepien M. 14. Serafin J. 4. Szymonowicz D. 33. Abramowicz D. 6. Lee Jin-Hyun 35. Kosidis M. 11. Cholewiak M.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 18. Salamon B. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 19. Fiabema B. 22. Murawski R. 43. Kozubal A. 8. Gholizadeh A. 7. Sousa A. 9. Ishak M.
Substitutes
24. Blagaic J. 70. Hajda W. 45. Kidric R. 8. Mrozinski P. 31. Perchel M. (G) 17. Radecki M. 9. Siemaszko A. 10. Tomalski H. 16. Walski M.	5. Andersson E. 50. Ba Loua A. 35. Bednarek F. (G) 3. Douglas A. 11. Hakans D. 21. Hotic D. 24. Jagiello F. 55. Pingot M. 17. Szymczak F.
Coaches
Tulacz T.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', Gurgul M. 🟥,
30', Kozubal A. ↓, Andersson E. ↑,
33', 1 - 0, Szymonowicz D. ⚽, Serafin J. (A),
36', Szymonowicz D. 🟨,
40', Solowiej L. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Kosidis M. ⚽, Lee Jin-Hyun (A),
45+4', Abramowicz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Salamon B. ↓, Douglas A. ↑,
46', Fiabema B. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
46', Solowiej L. ↓, Mrozinski P. ↑,
59', Sousa A. 🟨,
66', Szymonowicz D. ↓, Hajda W. ↑,
66', Sousa A. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
71', Serafin J. 🟨,
74', Cholewiak M. ↓, Blagaic J. ↑,
74', Stepien M. ↓, Siemaszko A. ↑,
78', Hajda W. 🟨,
80', Pereira J. ↓, Szymczak F. ↑,
89', Kosidis M. ↓, Radecki M. ↑,
90+2', Siemaszko A. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Puszcza is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lech is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lech could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Puszcza have a series of guest games.

In this match Lech is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Andersson E. (Injury) Douglas A. (Injury) Hakans D. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Puszcza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Puszcza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Cup
29.10.24	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:1 ✺
21.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
04.10.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - GKS Katowice	0:6 ✺
28.09.24	Raków Częstochowa - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.24	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:1 ✺
19.10.24	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
29.09.24	Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań	2:3 ✺
Polish Cup
26.09.24	Resovia Rzeszów - Lech Poznań	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
13.04.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lech Poznań	2:1
06.10.23	Lech Poznań - Puszcza Niepołomice	4:1

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