Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	beIN Connect, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Moldova	We Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport PSL
South-america	ESPN South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Suriname	ATV Suriname
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 11, Blue Sport 11, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Qarabağ Agdam		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.9	3.3
	2.15	3.85	3.25
	2.13	3.9	3.31
	2.04	3.94	3.47	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.3
	2.16	3.87	3.42
	2.08	4	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (2.07)	3.87 ↓ (3.94)	3.31 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
46%

Draw
24.9%

Ajax
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

24.4%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

23.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71%	10.8%	18.3%

Qarabağ Agdam - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 91 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 65 - 71.4%). Ajax will win (votes: 17 - 18.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 9.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qarabağ: 62.1% – 80.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Qarabağ (2.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 60%) .

DNB - Qarabağ (1.49) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.25 - Ajax (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Qarabağ Agdam will win (36 of 41 users predict this - 87.8%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Qarabağ (votes: 38 - 84.4%). Ajax (votes: 6 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kochalski M. (G) 2. Matheus Silva 13. Mustafazada B. 81. Medina K. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 35. Pedro Bicalho 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 10. Zoubir A. (C) 11. Addai E. 17. Duran C.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. (C) 2. Rosa L. 24. Mokio J. 4. Itakura K. 48. Steur S. 10. Gloukh O. 9. Dolberg K. 7. Moro R.
Substitutes
7. Akhundzade N. 27. Bayramov T. 97. Buntic F. (G) 6. Chriso 18. Dani Bolt 55. Huseynov B. 21. Kashchuk O. 1. Mahammadaliyev S. (G) 3. Mmaee S. 9. Montiel J. 22. Qurbanly M.	43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 11. Godts M. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 18. Klaassen D. 19. Konadu D. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 6. Regeer Y. 21. van den Boomen B. 53. van der Lans M. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Duran C. ⚽, Cafarquliyev E. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Dolberg K. ⚽, Steur S. (A),
45+1', Baas Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
47', 2 - 1, Matheus Silva ⚽,
59', Leandro Andrade ↓, Akhundzade N. ↑,
65', Dolberg K. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
65', Itakura K. ↓, Regeer Y. ↑,
70', Duran C. ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,
76', Steur S. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
76', Moro R. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Gloukh O. ⚽, Rosa L. (A),
83', 2 - 3, Gaaei A. ⚽, Konadu D. (A),
84', Mokio J. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
86', Cafarquliyev E. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
86', Matheus Silva ↓, Dani Bolt ↑,
87', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Montiel J. ↑,
90', 2 - 4, Gloukh O. ⚽, Godts M. (A),

Preview

Qarabağ is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ajax has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ajax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Qarabağ could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Qarabağ: Kady Borges (Injury) Mahammadaliyev S. (Injury) Montiel J. (Inactive) Rzayev A. (Inactive) Sheydayev R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) McConnell J. (Health problems) Sutalo J. (Health problems) Taylor K. (Injury) Weghorst W. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Qarabağ won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Including home match between the teams, Qarabağ won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
06.12.25	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Karvan	3:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
29.11.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Karvan	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Napoli - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
21.11.25	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWWLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:3 ✺
02.12.25	Ajax - Groningen	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Ajax - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Utrecht - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
24.10.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Ajax	0:3

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