Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 31

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)


	Quilmes		Güemes

	1	X	2
	1.41	3.8	8.5	Watch
	1.46	3.90	6.75
	1.4	4.05	7.2	Watch
	1.44	4.27	7.99
	1.45	4.08	7.6	Watch
	1.4	4.15	7.8
	1.4	3.84	7.6	Watch
	1.4	4.1	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.45)	4.02 ↑ (3.89)	7.58 ↓ (8.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
64.9%

Draw
22.9%

Güemes
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

24%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

23%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Quilmes - Güemes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Quilmes (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Quilmes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marinelli G. (C) 2. Romeo L. 4. Vallejos M. 6. Novillo J. 3. Bindella A. 8. Martinez R. 5. Bolivar A. 7. Lavezzi A. 11. Vera U. 10. Batista A. 9. Spetale A.	1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Gonzalez A. 6. Melillan F. 3. Benitez M. (C) 7. Sala S. G. 5. Baier G. 11. Guinazu L. 8. Pugliese G. 10. Ortigoza I. 9. Leineker C.
Substitutes
20. Bonacci P. 12. Canadell J. (G) 18. Fernandez M. 13. Kippes A. 14. Ortega A. 15. Ortega T. 19. Vazquez G. 17. Vega G. 16. Yangali J.	14. Arnay R. 18. Farrera S. 20. Gerez B. 15. Juarez J. 12. Palleres T. (G) 17. Pinto A. 13. Rizzi F. 19. Sanchez J. 16. Silisque R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Lavezzi A. (Penalty Awarded),
15', Guinazu L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lavezzi A. ↓, Vega G. ↑,
55', Pugliese G. ↓, Silisque R. ↑,
55', Ortigoza I. ↓, Pinto A. ↑,
55', Guinazu L. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
69', Sala S. G. ↓, Farrera S. ↑,
75', Vera U. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
81', Vallejos M. ↓, Ortega A. ↑,
85', Spetale A. ↓, Bonacci P. ↑,
85', Bolivar A. ↓, Yangali J. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Vega G. ⚽, Bonacci P. (A),
90+3', Benitez M. 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 13th and 18th in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 1.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

The betting markets point to Quilmes as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Quilmes has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 0.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Quilmes against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals (averaging 0.3:0.7 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.09.26	Chacarita Juniors - Quilmes	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Quilmes - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Nueva Chicago - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Quilmes - Temperley	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Deportivo Maipú - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLL
- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.09.26	Güemes - Ferrocarril Midland	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Güemes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Güemes - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.05.26	Güemes - Quilmes	2:1
22.09.25	Quilmes - Güemes	0:0
18.05.25	Güemes - Quilmes	0:0
28.09.24	Quilmes - Güemes	1:0
12.05.24	Güemes - Quilmes	1:0
09.07.22	Quilmes - Güemes	0:2

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