Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 25

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Quilmes		San Telmo

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.60	5.50
	1.58	3.4	5.9	Watch
	1.6	3.7	6.26
	1.59	3.66	6.12	Watch
	1.58	3.65	6.15
	1.61	3.39	6.49	Watch
	1.58	3.4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.55)	3.53 ↑ (3.53)	6.09 ↑ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
58.5%

Draw
26.3%

San Telmo
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

25.9%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

19.6%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The chances for San Telmo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Quilmes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Telmo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Quilmes - San Telmo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marinelli G. (G) 4. Ortega A. 2. Romeo L. 6. Kippes A. 3. Bindella A. 8. Martinez R. 5. Bolivar A. 11. Vera U. 10. Batista A. 7. Lavezzi A. 9. Spetale A.	1. Enrico J. C. (G) 4. Motroni J. 2. Pollacchi L. 6. Diaz E. 3. Romero P. 8. Uriburu R. 5. Britez E. 11. Nunez C. 7. Porto J. 9. Molina N. 10. Batallini M.
Substitutes
19. Bonacci P. 17. Colazo N. 20. Coronel J. 12. Glellel E. (G) 13. Novillo J. 15. Ortega T. 14. Rodriguez S. 18. Vega G. 16. Yozwiak F.	16. Baez F. 13. Britez L. 17. Gamarra R. 14. Gonzalez J. 19. Larthirigoyen I. 15. Ortiz N. 12. Rial J. (G) 18. Salerno M. 20. Zurbriggen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Spetale A. ⚽,
11', 2 - 0, Spetale A. ⚽,
13', Nunez C. 🟨,
18', Bolivar A. 🟨,
39', Martinez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nunez C. ↓, Larthirigoyen I. ↑,
64', Uriburu R. 🟨,
65', Martinez R. ↓, Colazo N. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Vera U. ⚽, Batista A. (A),
69', Porto J. ↓, Baez F. ↑,
69', Uriburu R. ↓, Gamarra R. ↑,
70', Pollacchi L. ↓, Britez L. ↑,
74', Bolivar A. ↓, Yozwiak F. ↑,
74', Lavezzi A. ↓, Vega G. ↑,
76', Molina N. ↓, Zurbriggen J. ↑,
82', Spetale A. ↓, Bonacci P. ↑,
82', Vera U. ↓, Novillo J. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 15).

In recent matches, Quilmes has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Telmo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Quilmes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Quilmes is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.08.26	Quilmes - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
05.08.26	Quilmes - Gimnasia Jujuy	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Patronato Parana - Quilmes	3:3 ✺
26.07.26	Quilmes - Colegiales	0:1 ✺
12.07.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWTLL
- CA San Telmo
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.08.26	Colón - San Telmo	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	San Telmo - San Miguel	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Racing de Córdoba - San Telmo	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	San Telmo - Chaco For Ever	1:3 ✺
05.07.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - San Telmo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
29.03.26	San Telmo - Quilmes	0:3
19.06.22	San Telmo - Quilmes	3:2

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