Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 July 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Racing Montevideo		Huachipato

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2	3.3	3.7
	2.05	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.08	3.4	3.82
	2.02	3.4	3.82	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.5	Watch
	1.97	3.44	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.25	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.3)	3.34 ↑ (3.15)	3.7 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
46.5%

Draw
28.1%

Huachipato
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.1%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

28%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

Huachipato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Huachipato might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Huachipato than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Racing Montevideo - Huachipato Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Huachipato will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Odriozola R. (C) 4. Cotugno G. 2. Magallanes H. 5. Monzon L. 34. Pereira A. 14. De Los Santos E. 21. Rodriguez L. 17. Ferreira M. 20. Urretaviscaya J. 26. Silveira H. 9. Nandin D.	24. Cerda F. (G) 5. Loyola F. 4. Gazzolo B. (C) 3. Gonzales 2. Castillo A. 14. Villanueva C. 15. Silva S. 8. Montes G. 28. Gutierrez M. 7. Briceno M. 23. Martinez C.
Substitutes
19. Airala C. 18. Alaniz A. 1. Bacchia R. (G) 3. Bueno G. 32. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 8. Gorocito L. 29. Hernandez A. 77. Mederos S. 10. Rivero J. 22. Severo A. 24. Teliz R. 27. Veron T.	21. Brea 22. Carcamo J. 26. Diaz L. 18. Gutierrez Jara J. I. 13. Malanca R. 34. Mella S. (G) 19. Oyarzun Saravia J. D. 10. Palmezano B. 1. Parra M. (G) 9. Rodriguez M. 11. Saez S. 6. Sepulveda C.
Coaches
Espinel E.	Troncoso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Martinez C. (Pen),
9', 0 - 1, Martinez C. ⚽,
14', Gonzales 🟨,
39', Pereira A. 🟨,
41', Magallanes H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Gutierrez M. ↓, Palmezano B. ↑,
71', Urretaviscaya J. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
74', Villanueva C. ↓, Brea ↑,
74', Martinez C. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
80', Ferreira M. ↓, Alaniz A. ↑,
80', Pereira A. ↓, Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↑,
82', Briceno M. ↓, Gutierrez Jara J. I. ↑,
83', Nandin D. 🟨,
Penalties (0 - 3)
1, Silveira H. (Pen),
1, Montes G. (Pen),
2, Nandin D. (Pen),
2, Palmezano B. (Pen),
3, Rodriguez L. (Pen),
3, Gutierrez Jara J. I. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 3-2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Huachipato could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Racing will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Racing won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.07.24	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.24	Huachipato - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.07.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Racing Montevideo	1:1 ✺
07.07.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	3:2 ✺
22.06.24	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWTLL
- CD Huachipato
Chilean Primera Division
19.07.24	Huachipato - Cobreloa	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.24	Huachipato - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
20.06.24	Ñublense - Huachipato	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.06.24	Huachipato - Grêmio	0:1 ✺
29.05.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Huachipato	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.07.24	Huachipato - Racing Montevideo	2:3

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