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Current Win Probability
Rayo Majadahonda 36.3%
Draw 30.7%
Real Murcia 33%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
29%
29.2%
41.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.9%
28.1%
43.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rayo Majadahonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Majadahonda's performance.
Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Murcia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Majadahonda than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Majadahonda that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+10.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Murcia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Rayo Majadahonda - Real Murcia Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Prieto M. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ramos Cruz D. (C) 20. Sotillos A. 17. Mesa O. 28. Ramos I. 22. Quintanilla R. 18. Aguado T. 15. Celorio N. 21. Cambra J. 19. Gonzaga M.
13. Jimenez D. (G) 2. Mier J. 6. Gonzalez A. (C) 4. Perez H. 3. Romero C. 8. Mier J. 15. Gil O. 14. Joao Pedro Palmberg 17. Moreno Sanchez J. 23. Bosilj D. 19. Jorquera Romero J.
Substitutes
16. Alvarez I. 8. Amaro A. 7. Calcada G. 6. del Pozo D. 23. Duran J. 1. Fuidias T. (G) 24. Sina B. 14. Yoshimura Y.
11. Bustos A. 21. Errahaly M. 20. Gimenez A. 40. Meca A. 10. Nunez C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 5. Rojas J. 28. Rubira Riquelme R. 24. Sanchez J. G. 27. Yoldi A.
Coaches
Fernandez G.
Guillo S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Mesa O. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Bosilj D. (Penalty Awarded),
20', Gil O. 🟨,
44', Joao Pedro Palmberg 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Ramos I. 🟥,
52', Celorio N. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
56', Joao Pedro Palmberg ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
59', Quintanilla R. ↓, Yoshimura Y. ↑,
59', Mesa O. ↓, Sina B. ↑,
61', Mier J. 🟨,
63', Gonzaga M. 🟨,
66', Yoshimura Y. 🟨,
68', Bosilj D. 🟨,
73', Gonzaga M. ↓, del Pozo D. ↑,
73', Sotillos A. ↓, Calcada G. ↑,
75', Moreno Sanchez J. ↓, Bustos A. ↑,
75', Gil O. ↓, Yoldi A. ↑,
75', Bosilj D. ↓, Gimenez A. ↑,
79', Gimenez A. 🟨,
82', Sina B. 🟨,
83', Gallardo D. 🟨,
84', Romero C. ↓, Errahaly M. ↑,
86', Bustos A. 🟨,
87', Nunez C. 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 5th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).
Recent results have been tough for Rayo Majadahonda (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Murcia have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Murcia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.
Spain
Watch
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Prieto M. (G) 
Joao Pedro Palmberg 
Bosilj D. 
Sina B. 
Yoshimura Y. 
Errahaly M. 
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