Match Info

LaLiga - Round 35

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 3
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Rayo Vallecano		Girona

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.4	2.95
	2.58	3.15	2.92	Watch
	2.3	3.35	3.5
	2.38	3.21	3.17	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.8
	2.7	3.25	2.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.2)	3.24 ↓ (3.63)	3.03 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
38.7%

Draw
29.6%

Girona
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

26.2%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

26.4%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Girona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Girona than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.6%	31.9%	25.5%

Rayo Vallecano - Girona Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 19 - 41.3%). Girona will win (votes: 12 - 26.1%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 32.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 27.1% – 55.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.36) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Rayo Vallecano (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Girona will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Girona (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 6. Ciss P. 24. Lejeune F. 3. Chavarria P. 4. Diaz P. 23. Valentin O. (C) 17. Lopez U. 19. de Frutos J. 10. Camello S. 21. Perez F.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 4. Martinez A. (C) 16. Frances A. 12. Vitor Reis 24. Moreno A. 8. Beltran F. 20. Witsel A. 15. Tsygankov V. 11. Lemar T. 3. Roca J. 18. Ounahi A.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 18. Garcia A. 15. Gumbau G. 14. Martin C. 32. Mendy N. 16. Mumin A. 11. Nteka R. 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	36. Artero R. 1. Blanco R. (G) 17. Blind D. 14. Echeverri C. 25. Krapyvtsov V. (G) 5. Lopez D. 23. Martin I. 2. Rincon H. 9. Ruiz A. 7. Stuani C.
Coaches
Perez I.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Diaz P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Perez F. ↓, Alemao ↑,
58', Diaz P. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
60', Lemar T. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
60', Ounahi A. ↓, Martin I. ↑,
68', Camello S. ↓, Pacha ↑,
68', de Frutos J. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
72', Martinez A. ↓, Rincon H. ↑,
85', Beltran F. ↓, Stuani C. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Alemao ⚽, Lopez U. (A),
90', 1 - 1, Stuani C. ⚽, Tsygankov V. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 2.

Rayo Vallecano has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Girona has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Girona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Injury) Mendez D. (Knee Injury) Palazon I. (Red Card)

There will not play in Girona: Gil B. (Yellow Cards) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Portu (Knee Injury) Vanat V. (Injury) ter Stegen M. (Hamstring Injury) van de Beek D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:26. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Rayo Vallecano: 0.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Rayo Vallecano - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 43.23%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.05.26	Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.26	Getafe - Rayo Vallecano	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
26.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad	3:3 ✺
23.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WWWTW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
01.05.26	Girona - Mallorca	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Valencia - Girona	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Girona - Betis	2:3 ✺
10.04.26	Real Madrid - Girona	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Girona - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
15.08.25	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	1:3
26.01.25	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	2:1
25.09.24	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
26.02.24	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.01.24	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	3:1
Spanish LaLiga
11.11.23	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	1:2
18.03.23	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	2:2

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