Match Info

LaLiga - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Sevilla

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.6	Watch
	2.18	3.25	3.45	Watch
	2.2	3.36	3.7
	2.00	3.28	3.86	Watch
	2.21	3.43	3.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.5)	3.31 ↑ (3.21)	3.66 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
44.8%

Draw
28.9%

Sevilla
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

30.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

30.1%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Vallecano's performance.

Sevilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Vallecano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sevilla than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.7%	7.3%	11%

Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 81 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 66 - 81.5%). Sevilla will win (votes: 9 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 73% – 90%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Rayo Vallecano (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (38 of 44 users predict this - 86.36%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 39 - 86.7%). Sevilla (votes: 3 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. 4. Diaz P. 23. Valentin O. (C) 18. Garcia A. 9. Alemao 19. de Frutos J.	1. Vlachodimos O. (G) 3. Azpilicueta C. 15. Cardoso F. 23. Marcao (C) 2. Carmona J. A. 18. Agoume L. 19. Mendy B. 12. Suazo G. 10. Sanchez A. 7. Romero I. 11. Vargas R.
Substitutes
20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 10. Camello S. 30. Gil J. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 17. Lopez U. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	9. Adams A. 28. Bueno M. 32. Castrin 21. Ejuke C. 6. Gudelj N. 24. Januzaj A. 22. Martinez R. 13. Nyland O. (G) 36. Oso 14. Peque 16. Sanchez J. 20. Sow D.
Coaches
Perez I.	Almeyda M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Lejeune F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Carmona J. A. 🟨,
67', Diaz P. ↓, Lopez U. ↑,
67', de Frutos J. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
69', Vargas R. ↓, Januzaj A. ↑,
69', Romero I. ↓, Adams A. ↑,
77', Cardoso F. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
77', Agoume L. ↓, Sow D. ↑,
78', Palazon I. ↓, Trejo O. ↑,
78', Alemao ↓, Camello S. ↑,
82', Trejo O. 🟨,
87', 0 - 1, Adams A. ⚽, Carmona J. A. (A),
90+2', Camello S. 🟨,
90+2', Valentin O. ↓, Becerra S. ↑,
90+3', Sanchez A. ↓, Peque ↑,
90+5', Peque 🟨,
90+8', Camello S. 🟥,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rayo Vallecano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sevilla: Gonzalez A. (Ankle Injury) Nianzou T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Nteka R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sevilla: Joan Jordan (Back Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:40. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
24.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Neman Grodno	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTLTW
- Sevilla FC
Spanish LaLiga
23.09.25	Sevilla - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Deportivo Alavés - Sevilla	1:2 ✺
12.09.25	Sevilla - Elche	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Girona - Sevilla	0:2 ✺
25.08.25	Sevilla - Getafe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.03.25	Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla	1:1
24.11.24	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
05.02.24	Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla	1:2
07.10.23	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	2:2
19.02.23	Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla	1:1
29.10.22	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	0:1
13.03.22	Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla	1:1

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