Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Kovacs I. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Real Madrid		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.22	7	11
	1.24	7.25	9.00
	1.21	7.6	12
	1.24	7.6	10.56
	1.25	7.4	10	Watch
	1.21	7.4	10
	1.26	7.6	11.1
	1.21	7.8	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.31)	7.46 ↑ (5.8)	10.46 ↑ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
78%

Draw
12.9%

RB Leipzig
9.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.6%

16.4%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

16.4%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97%	0%	3%

Real Madrid - RB Leipzig Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Real (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.25 - RB Leipzig (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH -2 - Real Madrid (1.88) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (32 of 32 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 6 - 85.7%). RB Leipzig (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Real is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

RB Leipzig has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

RB Leipzig could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Real as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Confirmed absences for Real: Asencio R. (Broken Leg) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for RB Leipzig: Guiu M. (Hamstring Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Shoulder Injury) Zingerle L. (Off the roster).

Doubtful / questionable for RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Thigh Injury).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Real has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:4 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	6:4	2	6
23	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	2:4	-2	3

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 8.54% RB Leipzig: 0.77%

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 72.56%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.26	Real Madrid - Sevilla	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.10.26	Roma - Real Madrid	3:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.10.26	Real Madrid - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Elche - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	RB Leipzig - PSV Eindhoven	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
06.03.24	Real Madrid - RB Leipzig	1:1
13.02.24	RB Leipzig - Real Madrid	0:1
25.10.22	RB Leipzig - Real Madrid	3:2
14.09.22	Real Madrid - RB Leipzig	2:0

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