Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 12

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Cacereño

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.3	4.75
				Watch
	1.68	3.45	4.95
	1.71	3.59	5.09
	1.78	3.45	4.45	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.79
	1.7	3.14	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.78)	3.37 ↓ (3.45)	4.76 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
53.6%

Draw
27.1%

Cacereño
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

26.9%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

26%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Cacereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cacereño than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Real Madrid Castilla - Cacereño Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Cacereño will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 1 - 50%). Cacereño (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mestre S. (G) 15. Martinez J. 21. Aguado D. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 30. Mesonero D. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 27. Pitarch T. 39. Leiva A. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C. (C)	1. Nieves D. (G) 22. Hernandez E. 15. Vicente I. 4. Crespo A. 23. El Goumiri O. 8. Deco (C) 16. Gutierrez D. 17. Berlanga M. 18. Sanchis R. 20. Gonzalez C. 7. Fernandez I.
Substitutes
23. Fati L. 20. Fortuny P. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 34. Lezcano A. 31. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D.	3. Barrio J. 5. de Diego J. 19. Gomez C. 9. Gomez D. 13. Martinez Marti I. (G) 21. Morales A. 6. Rementeria U. 24. Valdera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Aguado D. 🟨,
34', Serrano M. 🟨,
37', Gutierrez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Aguado D. ↓, Perea C. ↑,
61', Pitarch T. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
61', Zuniga L. ↓, Gines A. ↑,
67', Sanchis R. ↓, Valdera R. ↑,
70', Mesonero D. ↓, Fortuny P. ↑,
70', Leiva A. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
76', Fernandez I. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
76', Gonzalez C. ↓, Rementeria U. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Gines A. ⚽,
80', El Goumiri O. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
80', Gutierrez D. ↓, de Diego J. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Palacios C. (Pen),
87', Perea C. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Real Madrid Castilla is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cacereño has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is a strong favorite.

We predict that Real Madrid Castilla will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW
- CP Cacereño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	Cacereño - Real Avilés	0:4 ✺
02.11.25	Ponferradina - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Cacereño - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Cacereño	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLTW

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