Match Info

LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Anoeta (San Sebastian)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN 2
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Sociedad		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.60	2.05	Watch
	3.30	3.50	2.10
	3.40	3.65	2.04	Watch
	3.45	3.67	2.17
	3.29	3.85	2.14
	3.45	3.50	2.16
	3.64	3.66	2.03	Watch
	3.45	3.65	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.06)	3.64 ↑ (3.59)	2.1 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
28%

Draw
26.4%

Atlético Madrid
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

26.3%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

25.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	36.7%	56.7%

Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Real Sociedad will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). Atlético will win (votes: 17 - 56.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 36.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 39% – 74.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Real Sociedad (2.29) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - no (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Atlético (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 34. Beitia L. 19. Sarr M. 17. Gomez S. 21. Herrera Y. 18. Soler C. 7. Barrenetxea A. 24. Sucic L. 11. Guedes G. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)	13. Oblak J. (C) 18. Pubill M. 21. Romero C. 17. Hancko D. 20. Simeone G. 14. Llorente M. 23. Hjulmand M. 22. Grimaldo A. 7. Lee Kang-In 10. Baena A. 11. Lookman A.
Substitutes
27. Carrera G. 22. Fort H. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 14. Kubo T. 29. Marchal A. 13. Marrero U. (G) 3. Munoz A. 12. Ochieng J. 9. Oskarsson O. 16. Pacheco J. 8. Turrientes B. 23. Zakharyan A.	5. Cardoso J. 15. David J. 27. Dominguez J. 25. Esquivel S. (G) 45. Gil J. 6. Koke 24. Le Normand R. 30. Martinez D. 4. Mendoza R. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 3. Vargas O.
Coaches
Matarazzo P.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Herrera Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
59', Baena A. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
60', Llorente M. ↓, David J. ↑,
60', Lee Kang-In ↓, Koke ↑,
72', Matarazzo P. 🟨,
72', Barrenetxea A. ↓, Ochieng J. ↑,
72', Guedes G. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
75', Cardoso J. 🟨,
76', Lookman A. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
78', Soler C. ↓, Gorrotxategi J. ↑,
78', Oyarzabal M. 🟨,
79', Oyarzabal M. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Grimaldo A. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Herrera Y. ↓, Zakharyan A. ↑,
90', 0 - 2, David J. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
90+5', 0 - 3, Simeone G. ⚽, Hancko D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Martin J. (Red Card) Odriozola A. (Knee Injury) Zubeldia I. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Injury) Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.08% Real Sociedad: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9:13	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Real Sociedad - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.8%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.95%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
07.09.26	Elche - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
03.09.26	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Real Sociedad - Espanyol	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
21.08.26	Betis - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWLL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Málaga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
18.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:3 penalties
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	3:2
04.01.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	1:1
10.05.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:0
06.10.24	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	1:1
25.05.24	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:2
08.10.23	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:1

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