Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 7

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Bauer (Paris - Saint-Ouen)

Referee: Taleb A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Red Star		Troyes

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.62	3.15	2.58
	2.71	3.23	2.78
	7.98	4.07	1.43	Watch
	2.67	3.2	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (2.64)	3.37 ↑ (3.3)	2.41 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Star
27.6%

Draw
30.2%

Troyes
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

28.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Star has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Red Star's form might have worsened.

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Troyes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Red Star, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Troyes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

Red Star - Troyes Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Red Star will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Troyes will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Troyes (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Troyes (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Poussin G. (G) 20. Durivaux D. 24. Lemonnier P. 3. Huard M. 81. Haag G. 22. Sylla D. 11. Cisse K. 98. Hachem R. (C) 10. Khaoui S. E. 23. Ikanga J. 7. Durand D.	16. Lemaitre N. (G) 44. Titi Y. 6. Monfray A. (C) 25. Gozzi P. 14. Boura I. 8. Diop M. 10. Ifnaoui M. 17. Mille A. 5. Adeline M. 15. Assoumou J. 21. Bentayeb T.
Substitutes
29. Benali H. 1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 91. Cabral K. 27. Danger B. 8. Eickmayer J. 4. Kayi Sanda J. 17. Renel S.	11. Detourbet M. 9. El Idrissy M. 23. Gambor H. 40. Konate H. (G) 35. Murcy R. 12. Odede E. 3. Ouzenadji A.
Coaches
Poirier G.	Dumont S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', Monfray A. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Huard M. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Ifnaoui M. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Mille A. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
45', Huard M. ↓, Kayi Sanda J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Mille A. 🟨,
67', Khaoui S. E. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
67', Cisse K. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
68', 1 - 3, Assoumou J. ⚽,
70', Poirier G. 🟨,
70', Adeline M. 🟨,
76', Hachem R. ↓, Cabral K. ↑,
77', Haag G. ↓, Danger B. ↑,
77', Assoumou J. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
77', Adeline M. ↓, Gambor H. ↑,
82', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
90+5', Mille A. ↓, Ouzenadji A. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Troyes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Red Star: Doucoure R. (Knee Injury) Escartin J. (Injury) Hachem A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Troyes: Maronnier L. (Inactive) Phliponeau A. (Muscle Injury) Traore I. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:15. (average 0.8:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Red Star won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:8. (average 0.3:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Star FC 93
French Ligue 2
19.09.25	Nancy - Red Star	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Pau - Red Star	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Red Star - Annecy	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Guingamp - Red Star	0:4 ✺
15.08.25	Red Star - Amiens	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWWWL
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
20.09.25	Troyes - Guingamp	5:2 ✺
12.09.25	Troyes - Nancy	3:0 ✺
29.08.25	Dunkerque - Troyes	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Troyes - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Clermont - Troyes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
05.04.25	Troyes - Red Star	2:2
08.11.24	Red Star - Troyes	0:3
23.04.19	Troyes - Red Star	2:0
30.11.18	Red Star - Troyes	0:3
14.04.17	Troyes - Red Star	3:2
18.11.16	Red Star - Troyes	1:2

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