Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni (Ospitaletto)

Referee: Terribile A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Ospitaletto		Renate

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.20	3.10
	2.04	3.15	3.10	Watch
	2.21	3.20	3.68
	2.15	3.21	3.22	Watch
	2.18	2.90	3.60
	2.11	3.16	3.58	Watch
	2.03	3.30	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.75)	3.16 ↓ (3.2)	3.37 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospitaletto
43.6%

Draw
29.1%

Renate
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

28.4%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

27.8%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospitaletto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ospitaletto's form might have worsened.

Renate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Renate's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospitaletto than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ospitaletto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Renate than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Renate, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ospitaletto - Renate Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ferrante M. (G) 16. Gualandris M. 15. Parmiggiani P. 4. Nessi R. 20. Casali M. 26. Mondini G. 28. Panatti M. (C) 43. Guarneri M. 14. Galuppini F. 9. Gobbi F. 77. Stefanoni D.	30. Avella M. (G) 29. Botrini T. 13. Motoc A. 5. Auriletto S. (C) 21. Riviera C. 47. Kerrigan L. 11. Delcarro A. 25. Vassallo F. 71. Ruiz Giraldo P. 9. Karlsson O. 92. Anelli N.
Substitutes
10. Cantamessa S. 1. Fratti C. (G) 7. Messaggi C. 55. Mundi R. (G) 18. Paganotti M. 17. Plutnik A. 11. Ragnoli Galli F. 8. Tigani E. 21. Torri A. 45. Valente M. 24. Valota G.	12. Bartoccioni A. (G) 17. Bonetti A. 14. Cali M. 8. Dore S. 23. Gobbo L. 7. Italeng J. 72. Mastromonaco G. 73. Minotti G. 15. Suarez M. 33. Tempre M. 4. Vigano F. 20. Zalazar S.
Coaches
Quaresmini A.	Banchieri S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Gobbi F. ⚽, Galuppini F. (A),
17', Karlsson O. ↓, Italeng J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Motoc A. ↓, Mastromonaco G. ↑,
49', Botrini T. 🟨,
61', Guarneri M. 🟨,
69', Guarneri M. ↓, Tigani E. ↑,
69', Stefanoni D. ↓, Messaggi C. ↑,
74', Botrini T. ↓, Minotti G. ↑,
74', Ruiz Giraldo P. ↓, Tempre M. ↑,
77', Delcarro A. 🟨,
78', Vassallo F. ↓, Cali M. ↑,
85', Galuppini F. ↓, Valente M. ↑,
88', Anelli N. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, Cali M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/8 - finals) and 20th in the Relegation).

Ospitaletto is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Renate has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ospitaletto holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ospitaletto has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ospitaletto against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ospitaletto	9	5	3	1	15:6	9	18
20	Renate	9	0	4	5	8:14	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CPR Ospitaletto
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Ospitaletto - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
17.09.26	Carpi - Ospitaletto	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ospitaletto - Juventus U23	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Ospitaletto - Union ArzignanoChiampo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLTWW
- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
27.09.26	Renate - Treviso	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Renate - Dolomiti Bellunesi	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lumezzane - Renate	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Renate - Novara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
08.02.26	Ospitaletto - Renate	1:1
25.09.25	Renate - Ospitaletto	1:2

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