Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Skonto stadions (Riga)

Referee: Kikacheishvili G. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Latvia	TV4
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, Arena Premium 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Riga		Vardar

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.20	6.00	Watch
	1.40	4.75	6.00
	1.30	5.25	8.00
	1.36	5.04	7.20
	1.37	5.16	7.22	Watch
	1.33	4.95	7.10
	1.50	4.38	6.25	Watch
	1.39	4.80	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.42)	4.82 ↑ (4.6)	6.8 ↓ (7.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga
67%

Draw
19.3%

Vardar
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

20.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Vardar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	9.5%	4.8%

Riga - Vardar Predictions

Users Predictions: Riga will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Orols F. (G) 13. Jurkovskis R. (C) 33. Paulo Eduardo 21. Musah B. 17. Salazar A. 22. Diop M. 8. Iago Siqueira 40. Ankrah A. 4. Galo O. 7. Aouani R. 19. Badamosi M.	95. Taleski D. (G) 21. Jankulov G. 5. Najdovski F. 4. Matic M. 3. Manevski M. 6. Babunski D. 32. Castaneda D. 34. Puleio I. 71. Miguel Pires 7. Rodrigues G. 9. Omeragic A. (C)
Substitutes
3. Abner 99. Caio Ferreira 34. Cernomordijs A. 44. Kazainis M. (G) 31. Papadoudis A. (G) 11. Pena B. 10. Reginaldo Ramires 25. Taiwo A. 23. Tonisevs M. 5. Wassom K.	27. Cvetkovski F. 49. Danev D. 1. Dikovski D. (G) 23. Duranski F. 31. Markovski I. 18. Mishkovski N. 17. Spahiu E. 22. Todorovski D. 14. Velkovski D. 10. Zakaric G.
Coaches
Gula A.	Fabbiani C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Babunski D. ⚽, Puleio I. (A),
19', Najdovski F. 🟥,
22', Miguel Pires ↓, Velkovski D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diop M. ↓, Caio Ferreira ↑,
56', Musah B. 🟨,
65', Galo O. ↓, Reginaldo Ramires ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Omeragic A. ⚽,
69', Omeragic A. ↓, Zakaric G. ↑,
75', Salazar A. ↓, Taiwo A. ↑,
84', Castaneda D. ↓, Duranski F. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Taiwo A. ⚽, Reginaldo Ramires (A),
Extra Time (4 - 0)
91', Manevski M. ↓, Cvetkovski F. ↑,
91', Jurkovskis R. ↓, Tonisevs M. ↑,
92', 2 - 2, Aouani R. ⚽,
92', Aouani R. 🟨,
99', Badamosi M. ↓, Cernomordijs A. ↑,
99', Babunski D. ↓, Todorovski D. ↑,
99', Puleio I. ↓, Danev D. ↑,
105', 3 - 2, Iago Siqueira ⚽, Aouani R. (A),
105+6', Velkovski D. 🟨,
109', 4 - 2, Reginaldo Ramires ⚽,
112', Aouani R. ↓, Wassom K. ↑,
117', 5 - 2, Caio Ferreira ⚽, Tonisevs M. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 3-2.

Riga is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Riga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Riga is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Riga will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Riga won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Riga FC: 0.15%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Vardar - Riga	2:3 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
18.07.26	Riga - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	Riga - Ararat-Armenia	3:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
10.07.26	Leevon PPK - Riga	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.07.26	Ararat-Armenia - Riga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWL
- FK Vardar
North Macedonian 1 MFL
25.07.26	Vardar - Bregalnica Štip	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Vardar - Riga	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Vardar	2:3 AET ✺
07.07.26	Vardar - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
North Macedonian 1 MFL
23.05.26	Vardar - Shkendija Tetovo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Vardar - Riga	2:3

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