Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Rio Ave		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.95	2.55	Watch
	2.88	2.98	2.58	Watch
	2.97	3.11	2.67
	3.26	3.13	2.32	Watch
	3.04	3.14	2.61	Watch
	3	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.25)	3.05 ↓ (3.08)	2.54 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
31.6%

Draw
31.1%

Santa Clara
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

30.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.8%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Rio Ave aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Rio Ave - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Clara: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santa Clara (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 4. Panzo J. 6. Abbey N. 17. Vrousai M. (C) 5. Ntoi A. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 3. Athanasiou N. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 80. Pohlmann O.	1. Gabriel Batista (C) 21. Venancio F. 13. Rocha L. 23. Lima S. 42. Lucas Soares 6. Adriano Firmino 8. Ferreira P. 35. Serginho 64. Paulo Victor 11. Brenner 29. Wendell
Substitutes
32. Brabec J. 22. Chamorro K. (G) 28. Gual M. 54. Liavas G. 63. Lomboto J. 44. Nikitscher T. 19. Papakanellos A. 18. Spikic D. 20. Tome J.	20. Adriel 9. Carter A. 17. Costa J. 2. Diogo Calila 28. Luquinhas 32. MT 12. Neneca (G) 94. Silva H. 65. Tavares J.
Coaches
Sylaidopoulos S.	Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Clayton (Pen),
19', Serginho 🟨,
23', Paulo Victor 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Clayton ⚽, Pohlmann O. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Serginho (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', Ntoi A. 🟨,
71', Pohlmann O. ↓, Spikic D. ↑,
72', Brenner 🟨,
76', Paulo Victor ↓, MT ↑,
80', Ntoi A. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
80', Brenner ↓, Luquinhas ↑,
81', Athanasiou N. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
89', Andre Luiz ↓, Gual M. ↑,
89', Serginho ↓, Diogo Calila ↑,
89', Adriano Firmino ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
89', Wendell ↓, Costa J. ↑,
90+3', Petrasso F. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Santa Clara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Rafael Lobato (Inactive)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Rio Ave: Richards O. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Rio Ave - Estoril Praia	0:4 ✺
25.10.25	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Sintrense - Rio Ave	3:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Rio Ave - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWLW
- CD Santa Clara
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Santa Clara - Comércio e Indústria	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Braga - Santa Clara	5:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Santa Clara - AVS	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.04.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1
07.12.24	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	1:0
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:2
Liga Portugal
17.03.23	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	0:2
02.10.22	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:0
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	0:2
Portuguese League Cup
22.09.21	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	2:2

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