Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Santa Clara		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.01	2.82	4.5	Watch
	1.98	2.98	4.25	Watch
	2.06	3.05	4.71
	2.01	3.03	4.46	Watch
	2	2.9	4.33	Watch
	2.02	3.01	4.92	Watch
	1.96	3	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.94)	2.97 ↓ (3.14)	4.52 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
47.2%

Draw
31.9%

Casa Pia
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

30.1%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

30.7%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	7.1%	14.3%

Santa Clara - Casa Pia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santa Clara (1.32) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Santa Clara will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Batista (C) 21. Venancio F. 13. Rocha L. 23. Lima S. 42. Lucas Soares 35. Serginho 8. Ferreira P. 6. Adriano Firmino 64. Paulo Victor 29. Wendell 11. Brenner	33. Batista R. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 2. Tchamba D. 72. Larrazabal G. 14. Miguel Sousa 74. Nhaga R. 42. Perez S. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano
Substitutes
20. Adriel 17. Costa J. 2. Diogo Calila 7. Elias Manoel 28. Luquinhas 32. MT 12. Neneca (G) 94. Silva H. 65. Tavares J.	22. Azevedo D. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 8. Brito R. 4. Goulart J. 7. Nsona K. 20. Oukili Y. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 17. Severina X. 43. Sousa D.
Coaches
Matos V.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Tchamba D. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Venancio F. ⚽, Serginho (A),
25', Serginho 🟨,
35', Adriano Firmino 🟨,
40', Lima S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Miguel Sousa ↓, Severina X. ↑,
56', Nhaga R. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
56', Tchamba D. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
73', Severina X. 🟨,
73', Lucas Soares ↓, Diogo Calila ↑,
73', Serginho ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
77', Geraldes A. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
84', Brenner ↓, Luquinhas ↑,
84', Wendell ↓, Costa J. ↑,
87', Tavares J. 🟨,
87', Conte A. ↓, Benaissa-Yahia F. ↑,
88', Perez S. 🟨,
89', Livolant J. 🟨,
90+3', Paulo Victor ↓, MT ↑,
90+5', Diogo Calila 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 15).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Santa Clara is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Sequeira P. (Red Card) Svensson M. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: Brenner (Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Mohamed I. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Clara won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Santa Clara - Comércio e Indústria	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Braga - Santa Clara	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TWLLL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Alpendorada - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.02.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	2:1
24.08.24	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	0:2
29.01.23	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	2:1
07.08.22	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.19	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:2

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