Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Tondela		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.05	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.22	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.56
	2.23	3.23	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3	Watch
	2.29	3.27	3.47	Watch
	2.16	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.39)	3.15 ↓ (3.24)	3.42 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
42.7%

Draw
29.9%

Casa Pia
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

29.2%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	18.5%	14.8%

Tondela - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Tondela (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Tondela (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 4. Marques C. 5. Afonso J. (C) 60. Maviram E. 32. Rodriguez J. 97. Cicero 79. Felix H. 7. Pedro Maranhao 29. Siebatcheu J. 17. Cavaleiro I.	33. Batista R. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 74. Nhaga R. 42. Perez S. 20. Oukili Y. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 10. Rocha Livramento D.
Substitutes
30. Canizares L. (G) 6. Ceitil A. 27. Conceicao R. 10. Hodge J. 19. Rodrigues A. 11. Rodriguez Y. 16. Rony Lopes 8. Tavares H. 67. Yarlen	8. Brito R. 90. Cassiano 4. Goulart J. 99. Mendes C. 14. Miguel Sousa 7. Nsona K. 19. Prieto K. 1. Sequeira P. (G) 17. Severina X.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Manso T. 🟨,
31', Nhaga R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Afonso J. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Cavaleiro I. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Manso T. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Larrazabal G. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
66', Oukili Y. 🟨,
69', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
69', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Nhaga R. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
78', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
79', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
81', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
82', Geraldes A. 🟨,
86', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
86', Maviram E. ↓, Rony Lopes ↑,
87', Larrazabal G. ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
87', Livolant J. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Tondela is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto (Injury) Medina B. (Red Card) Moudjatovic M. (Injury) Sithole S. (International duty) Vita R. (International duty)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Mohamed I. (International duty)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Sequeira P. (Inactive) Svensson M. (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Tondela - Caldas	0:1 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWLL
- Casa Pia
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Alpendorada - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLLW

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