Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 14

Date: 23 December 2022, Friday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Rio Ave		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.7
	2.08	3.3	3.5
	2.1	3.2	3.55
	2.16	3.3	3.83
	2.1	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.07	3.2	3.76	Watch
	2.14	3.25	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.03)	3.22 ↓ (3.36)	3.67 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
44.9%

Draw
29.3%

Marítimo
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

27.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26.4%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Marítimo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	7.5%	4%

Rio Ave - Marítimo Predictions

Users Predictions: Rio Ave will win (154 of 174 users predict this - 88.51%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.77% – 93.25%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Rio Ave has the most likely position - 7 (9.96%), has project points - 44, has currently - 18, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 17 (36.88%), has project points - 27, has currently - 6, has a good chance of relegated (67%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 43, small importance 28, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 1.

Rio Ave is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Marítimo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Rio Ave will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Joca (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marítimo: Beltrame S. (Injury) Catamo G. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Rio Ave to win the game is with odds 2.05.

Last 24 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 18-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Ave won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Portuguese League Cup
13.12.22	Rio Ave - Farense	2:1 ✺
07.12.22	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
01.12.22	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.11.22	Arouca - Rio Ave	0:1 ✺
06.11.22	Rio Ave - Boavista	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WLWWW
- CS Marítimo
Portuguese League Cup
13.12.22	Sporting Lisbon - Marítimo	5:0 ✺
07.12.22	Farense - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
01.12.22	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
06.11.22	Marítimo - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
01.12.22	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:1
Liga Portugal
21.04.21	Marítimo - Rio Ave	1:0
28.12.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	1:3
Club Friendly
29.08.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	0:0
Liga Portugal
13.07.20	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:0
05.01.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	0:1
28.01.19	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:2

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