Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Santa Clara		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	7.5	3.8	1.44
	7.9	4.15	1.41
	9.01	4.2	1.44
	14.36	5.55	1.23	Watch
	6.5	3.75	1.44
	7.31	3.8	1.5
	7	3.8	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.51 ↓ (9.8)	4.15 ↓ (4.45)	1.43 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
11.1%

Draw
22.7%

Sporting Lisbon
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

9.4%

20.7%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.1%

20%

72.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Sporting (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 15 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Neneca (G) 94. Silva H. 21. Venancio F. 23. Lima S. (C) 42. Lucas Soares 35. Serginho 65. Tavares J. 32. MT 28. Luquinhas 17. Costa J. 10. Gabriel Silva	12. Virginia J. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 25. Inacio G. 72. Quaresma E. 2. Matheus Reis 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 27. Alisson Santos 17. Trincao 20. Araujo M. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
6. Adriano Firmino 20. Adriel 11. Brenner 80. Duarte T. 7. Elias Manoel 8. Ferreira P. 1. Gabriel Batista (G) 64. Paulo Victor 13. Rocha L.	70. Blopa S. 58. Goncalves F. 89. Ioannidis F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 28. Ribeiro R. 49. Romulus 1. Silva R. (G) 13. Vagiannidis G.
Coaches
Pires L.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Simoes J. ⚽, Fresneda I. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Lucas Soares ⚽, Tavares J. (A),
40', Suarez L. 🟨,
44', Gabriel Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Lima S. ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
59', Venancio F. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
66', Lucas Soares ↓, Brenner ↑,
66', Costa J. ↓, Duarte T. ↑,
66', Alisson Santos ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
74', Luquinhas 🟨,
75', Matheus Reis ↓, Blopa S. ↑,
75', Simoes J. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
80', Tavares J. ↓, Ferreira P. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Gabriel Silva ⚽, Luquinhas (A),
89', Paulo Victor 🟥,
89', Fresneda I. 🟨,
90', Araujo M. ↓, Mangas R. ↑,
90', Fresneda I. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
90+13', Venancio F. 🟥,
90+14', Lucas Soares 🟥,
90+15', 2 - 2, Suarez L. (Penalty Awarded),
90+16', Serginho 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
95', Gabriel Silva ↓, Adriano Firmino ↑,
98', 2 - 3, Ioannidis F. ⚽, Hjulmand M. (A),
111', Blopa S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 1.

Santa Clara has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sporting is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Santa Clara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sporting is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Santa Clara: Diogo Calila (International duty) Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Catamo G. (International duty) Debast Z. (Injury) Diomande O. (International duty) Goncalves P. (Injury) Quenda G. (Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: Vinicius Lopes (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 11:30. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Clara won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 1:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Braga - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Santa Clara - Comércio e Indústria	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWTWL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Club Brugge	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
12.04.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	0:1
Taça de Portugal
18.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	2:1 ET
Liga Portugal
30.11.24	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	0:1
01.04.23	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	3:0
08.10.22	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
14.05.22	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	4:0

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