Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Rio Ave		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.05	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.15	2.32	Watch
	3.33	3.31	2.41
	3.12	3.29	2.34	Watch
	3	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.11	3.35	2.43	Watch
	3.14	3.14	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.53)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	2.33 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
30.4%

Draw
29.3%

Vitoria Guimarães
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.6%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

31.1%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Ave's form might have worsened.

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitoria Guimarães's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Ave, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	15.4%	53.8%

Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Guimarães will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 4. Panzo J. 6. Abbey N. 17. Vrousai M. (C) 44. Nikitscher T. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 3. Athanasiou N. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 80. Pohlmann O.	25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. (C) 13. Mendes J. II. 30. Nogueira G. 16. Beni 19. Camara O. 18. Arcanjo T. 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.
Substitutes
32. Brabec J. 21. Graca J. 54. Liavas G. 63. Lomboto J. 19. Papakanellos A. 29. Pastor A. (G) 18. Spikic D. 20. Tome J. 14. Zoabi K.	22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 3. Nobrega M. 7. Oliveira N. 20. Samu 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T.
Coaches
Sylaidopoulos S.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Vrousai M. 🟨,
26', Maga 🟨,
29', Petrasso F. 🟨,
29', Vrousai M. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Camara O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Maga ↓, Strata T. ↑,
46', Petrasso F. ↓, Brabec J. ↑,
46', Pohlmann O. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
59', Arcanjo T. ↓, Samu ↑,
60', Abascal R. 🟨,
63', Beni 🟨,
67', Beni ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
67', Ndoye A. ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
70', Clayton 🟨,
74', Saviolo N. ↓, Felix V. ↑,
79', Abbey N. ↓, Tome J. ↑,
79', Nikitscher T. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
89', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Zoabi K. ↑,
90+1', Felix V. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 1.

In recent matches, Rio Ave has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guimarães is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Ntoi A. (Yellow Cards) Rafael Lobato (Inactive) Richards O. (Injury)

There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Nogueira G. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Rio Ave - Estoril Praia	0:4 ✺
25.10.25	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTTLW
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	3:0
16.12.24	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2
04.05.24	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
23.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	1:0
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
Liga Portugal
14.05.23	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
07.01.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	0:0

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