Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	River Plate		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.25	13	Watch
	1.36	4.6	9
	1.25	5.45	13	Watch
	1.25	5.62	15.2
	1.26	5.42	13.48	Watch
	1.35	4.4	9	Watch
	1.27	5.32	13.2	Watch
	1.25	5.45	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.4)	5.19 ↑ (4.25)	12.36 ↑ (8.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

River Plate
74.1%

Draw
18.3%

Independiente del Valle
7.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

22.2%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

20.9%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate's performance.

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

River Plate - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Ind del Valle (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: River Plate will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): River Plate will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 4 - 80%). Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (C) 16. Bustos F. 6. Pezzella G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 20. Casco M. 26. Fernandez N. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 22. Castano K. 30. Mastantuono F. 15. Driussi S. 11. Colidio F.	22. Villar G. (G) 23. Santamaria T. 2. Zarate L. 14. Carabajal M. (C) 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 26. Cazares 32. Mendez J. 7. Mercado P. 11. Hoyos M. 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
21. Acuna M. 29. Aliendro R. 2. Gattoni F. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 5. Kranevitter M. 10. Lanzini M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 8. Meza M. 9. Miguel Borja 24. Perez E. 31. Simon S. 38. Subiabre I.	15. Cortez G. 13. Fernandez M. 55. Guagua D. 8. Ibarra R. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Medina J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 1. Ramirez M. (G) 5. Schunke R. 10. Sornoza J. 18. Zabala C.
Coaches
Gallardo M.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Driussi S. ⚽, Martinez Quarta L. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Spinelli C. (A),
21', 1 - 2, Spinelli C. ⚽, Loor L. (A),
25', 2 - 2, Zarate L. (Own goal),
40', Mercado P. 🟨,
45+4', Carabajal M. 🟥,
45+5', 3 - 2, Mastantuono F. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Fernandez N. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
46', Mercado P. ↓, Schunke R. ↑,
46', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Perez E. ↑,
51', 4 - 2, Meza M. ⚽, Bustos F. (A),
55', Hoyos M. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
61', Driussi S. ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
61', Mastantuono F. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
62', Spinelli C. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
62', Cazares ↓, Zabala C. ↑,
74', Mendez J. ↓, Quinonez O. ↑,
78', Colidio F. ↓, Subiabre I. ↑,
86', Loor L. 🟨,
88', 5 - 2, Miguel Borja ⚽, Castano K. (A),
90+4', 6 - 2, Lanzini M. ⚽, Meza M. (A),

Preview

River Plate is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ind del Valle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, River Plate is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in River Plate: Beltran S. (Injury) Martinez P. (Hamstring Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Inactive) Paez K. (Inactive) Velasco A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in River Plate: Montiel G. (Injury)

We predict that River Plate will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, River Plate won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.05.25	River Plate - Barracas Central	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - River Plate	2:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.25	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	River Plate - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Independiente del Valle - River Plate	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWT
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.05.25	Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Independiente del Valle - River Plate	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Independiente del Valle - River Plate	2:2

Upcoming Matches