Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Globoplay, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Pluto TV, TyC Sports Internacional


	River Plate		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.63	3.6	Watch
	2.58	2.48	3.55	Watch
	2.57	3.05	3.17
	5.66	3.27	1.72	Watch
	2.54	2.67	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.43)	2.82 ↓ (3.11)	3.14 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate
31.9%

Draw
35.9%

Palmeiras
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	81.8%	0%

River Plate - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 59% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - River Plate (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Palmeiras (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - River Plate (1.60) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (G) 5. Portillo J. 17. Diaz P. 13. Rivero L. 24. Perez E. (C) 4. Montiel G. 22. Castano K. 26. Fernandez N. 21. Acuna M. 7. Salas M. 15. Driussi S.	21. Weverton (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 5. Moreno A. 30. Lucas Evangelista 8. Pereira A. 42. Lopez J. 7. Felipe Anderson 9. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
14. Boselli S. 16. Bustos F. 20. Casco M. 11. Colidio F. 23. Galarza M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 39. Lencina S. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 9. Miguel Borja 10. Quintero J. 38. Subiabre I.	40. Allan 3. Bruno Fuchs 11. Bruno Rodrigues 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 13. Micael 23. Raphael Veiga 19. Sosa R. 17. Torres F.
Coaches
Gallardo M.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Gomez G. ⚽, Pereira A. (A),
17', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
18', Diaz P. 🟨,
25', Acuna M. 🟨,
26', Moreno A. 🟨,
38', Rivero L. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perez E. ↓, Quintero J. ↑,
46', Diaz P. ↓, Martinez Quarta L. ↑,
48', Montiel G. 🟨,
57', Driussi S. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
69', Moreno A. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
74', Pereira A. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
74', Vitor Roque ↓, Torres F. ↑,
77', Salas M. ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
77', Fernandez N. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
84', Weverton 🟨,
85', Felipe Anderson ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
85', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Allan ↑,
88', Torres F. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Martinez Quarta L. ⚽, Portillo J. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

River Plate is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in River Plate: Costantini G. (Inactive) Meza M. (Knee Injury) Pezzella G. (Knee Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho (Leg Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - River Plate	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	River Plate - San Martín de San Juan	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
28.08.25	Unión Santa Fe - River Plate	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.08.25	Lanús - River Plate	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	River Plate - Libertad Asuncion	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	Palmeiras - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWTW

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