Match Info

Division Intermedia - Round 20

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Paraguay	Tigo Sports+


	River Plate Asunción		Sportivo San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.05	3.1
	2.25	3.1	3.11
	3.34	3.31	2.11	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.25
	2.21	3.06	3.13
	2.77	3.2	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.88)	3.14 ↓ (3.35)	2.63 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Asunción
35.5%

Draw
29.4%

Sportivo San Lorenzo
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

26.9%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

26.5%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Asunción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Sportivo San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sportivo San Lorenzo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Asunción than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sportivo San Lorenzo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

River Plate Asunción - Sportivo San Lorenzo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Sportivo San Lorenzo (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sportivo San Lorenzo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 0 - 1, Samudio M. ⚽,
89', 1 - 1, Willian Alonzo ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5).

River Plate has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sportivo San Lorenzo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sportivo San Lorenzo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, River Plate won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Asunción
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
25.07.25	Rubio Ñu - River Plate Asunción	1:1 ✺
21.07.25	River Plate Asunción - Pastoreo	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Deportivo Santaní - River Plate Asunción	3:1 ✺
07.07.25	River Plate Asunción - Tacuary	1:0 ✺
27.06.25	River Plate Asunción - Resistencia	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTLWT
- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
28.07.25	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Independiente Asuncion	3:1 ✺
20.07.25	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
14.07.25	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sol de América	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Pastoreo - Sportivo San Lorenzo	0:2 ✺
29.06.25	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Fernando de la Mora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Division Intermedia
26.04.25	Sportivo San Lorenzo - River Plate Asunción	3:0
06.08.22	River Plate Asunción - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1
02.05.22	Sportivo San Lorenzo - River Plate Asunción	0:0

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