Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	Chilevision, ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sport 1+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	ESPN
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, Pluto TV


	River Plate Montevideo		Colo-Colo

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.2	10	Watch
	1.43	4.33	8.25
	1.37	4.45	8.9	Watch
	1.39	4.43	10.44
	1.42	4.3	8.86	Watch
	1.33	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.41	4.51	9.1	Watch
	1.37	4.45	8.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.49)	4.38 ↑ (4.07)	9.12 ↑ (7.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
68.1%

Draw
21.6%

Colo-Colo
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

23.3%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

22.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Colo-Colo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colo-Colo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

River Plate Montevideo - Colo Colo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (C) 16. Bustos F. 6. Pezzella G. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 24. Acuna M. 31. Simon S. 5. Kranevitter M. 26. Fernandez N. 8. Meza M. 9. Miguel Borja 11. Colidio F.	1. Cortes B. (G) 22. Isla M. 4. Saldivia A. 15. Amor E. 21. Wiemberg E. 8. Pavez E. (C) 5. Gil L. 23. Vidal A. 7. Carlos Palacios 32. Cepeda L. 9. Correa J.
Substitutes
7. Bareiro A. 20. Casco M. 13. Diaz E. 19. Echeverri C. 4. Fonseca N. 3. Funes Mori R. 2. Gattoni F. 10. Lanzini M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 36. Solari P. 23. Villagra R.	11. Bolados M. 19. Castellani G. 30. De Paul F. (G) 33. Gonzalez R. 13. Gutierrez B. 3. Gutierrez D. 16. Opazo Lara O. 29. Paiva G. 17. Riquelme C. 28. Soto L. 2. Villagra J. 14. Zavala C.
Coaches
Gallardo M.	Almiron J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Colidio F. ⚽, Simon S. (A),
44', Carlos Palacios 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Acuna M. 🟨,
54', Vidal A. 🟨,
62', Meza M. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
66', Correa J. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
69', Miguel Borja ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
69', Kranevitter M. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
71', Armani F. 🟨,
75', Isla M. ↓, Zavala C. ↑,
75', Gil L. ↓, Castellani G. ↑,
79', Simon S. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
81', Pavez E. ↓, Bolados M. ↑,
83', Fernandez N. 🟨,
90', Amor E. 🟨,
90+2', Paiva G. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Recent matches River Plate is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Colo-Colo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Colo-Colo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently River Plate have a series of guest games.

In this match River Plate is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches River Plate won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-7.

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.09.24	Boston River - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.24	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.09.24	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
07.09.24	Deportivo Maldonado - River Plate Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.24	River Plate Montevideo - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLWW
- Colo-Colo
Copa Libertadores
17.09.24	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
07.09.24	Deportes Magallanes - Colo-Colo	3:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
01.09.24	Cobreloa - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
29.08.24	Colo-Colo - Ñublense	2:1 ✺
25.08.24	Everton de Viña - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
17.09.24	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
Club Friendly
15.11.23	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2
09.11.22	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	3:4
Copa Libertadores
19.05.22	River Plate Montevideo - Colo-Colo	4:0
27.04.22	Colo-Colo - River Plate Montevideo	1:2

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