Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Russia	Viju+ Sport
Uruguay	VTV+
World	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		Juventud de Las Piedras

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.2	Watch
	3	3.25	2.2
	3.1	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.25	3.26	2.22
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.25	3.3	2.18	Watch
	3.1	3.35	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (3.02)	3.29 ↓ (3.36)	2.19 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
29.6%

Draw
28.1%

Juventud de Las Piedras
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

27.6%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

26.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Juventud de Las Piedras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for River Plate Montevideo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Juventud will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Juventud: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventud (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Juventud (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventud (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera R. 15. Jourdan E. 22. Alfonso M. 7. Quintana J. 11. De Los Santos J. 19. Barone F. 18. Lopez I.	1. Sosa S. (G) 24. Barrandeguy F. 4. Gauthier V. 20. Rodriguez M. 23. Mas E. 32. Rossi I. 22. Chagas R. 37. Peralta R. 80. Urretaviscaya J. 7. Larregui B. 9. Rodriguez A.
Substitutes
17. Cachi M. 29. Camejo L. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez 27. Lopez I. 20. Mederos S. 2. Perez F. 23. Rodriguez F. 10. Vera A.	18. Aja J. 27. Boselli M. 14. Duffard Villarreal M. N. 5. Morosini D. 21. Perez F. 35. Principe A. 31. Rodriguez I. 77. Rodriguez T. 12. Varese F. (G) 11. Vigo F.
Coaches
Ribas J.	Monarriz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Ramos N. 🟨,
32', Cabrera R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', 🟨,
67', Jourdan E. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
67', Barone F. ↓, Vera A. ↑,
70', Gauthier V. 🟨,
71', 1 - 0, Lopez I. ⚽,
76', Chagas R. ↓, Boselli M. ↑,
76', Peralta R. ↓, Vigo F. ↑,
81', Quintana J. 🟨,
83', Larregui B. ↓, Principe A. ↑,
88', Lopez I. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
90', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
90', Sosa S. 🟨,
90+1', Cabrera R. ↓, Camejo L. ↑,
90+5', Ramos N. 🟨,
90+7', Almeida C. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches River Plate won 2.

River Plate has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Juventud is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

River Plate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Juventud will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches River Plate won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22:15 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1.6:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.72%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
23.03.25	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
17.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Boston River	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLLL
- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.04.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Boston River	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
27.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:4 ✺
16.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
27.11.19	River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0
10.08.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	1:2
25.05.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	4:1
08.11.17	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
10.06.17	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
02.04.17	River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1
11.09.16	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	0:0

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