Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 20

Date: 3 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Bourne D. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3.6
	2.05	3.4	3.4
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.04	3.45	3.35
	2.12	3.53	3.58
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	2.11	3.6	3.52	Watch
	2.03	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.27)	3.47 ↑ (3.23)	3.44 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
45.5%

Draw
27.2%

Harrogate Town
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

29.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Rochdale - Harrogate Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Harrogate will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rochdale: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 20).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 22 (13%), has project points - 47, has currently - 15, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Harrogate has the most likely position - 23 (16.24%), has project points - 45, has currently - 16, has a chance of relegated (30%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 7, importance 40, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Rochdale is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Harrogate is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Harrogate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rochdale will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
19.11.22	Sutton United - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Rochdale - Mansfield Town	0:1 ✺
08.11.22	Rochdale - Salford City	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Bristol Rovers - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
English League Two
29.10.22	Walsall - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLL
- Harrogate Town
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
English League Two
19.11.22	Harrogate Town - Mansfield Town	3:0 ✺
12.11.22	Harrogate Town - Leyton Orient	0:2 ✺
08.11.22	Harrogate Town - Carlisle United	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Bradford City - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
12.02.22	Rochdale - Harrogate Town	3:3
English League Cup
10.08.21	Harrogate Town - Rochdale	Rochdale walkover
English League Two
07.08.21	Harrogate Town - Rochdale	3:2

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