Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 18

Date: 12 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Lewis R. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Mansfield Town

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	2.25
	3.2	3.3	2.15
	3	3.35	2.3
	3.2	3.25	2.17
	3.41	3.44	2.22
	3.2	3.25	2.2
	3.36	3.48	2.22	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.1)	3.32 ↑ (3.1)	2.21 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
29.1%

Draw
28.4%

Mansfield Town
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Mansfield Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Rochdale - Mansfield Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Mansfield will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 9).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 20 (9.23%), has project points - 51, has currently - 15, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Mansfield has the most likely position - 6 (7.47%), has project points - 70, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (28%), has a chance of promoted (23%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has small quality 10, small importance 28, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 2.

Rochdale is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Mansfield is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mansfield could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mansfield will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
08.11.22	Rochdale - Salford City	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Bristol Rovers - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
English League Two
29.10.22	Walsall - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
25.10.22	Tranmere Rovers - Rochdale	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLTL
- Mansfield Town
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Barrow - Mansfield Town	0:1 ✺
English League Two
29.10.22	Mansfield Town - Swindon Town	2:5 ✺
25.10.22	Mansfield Town - Newport County	0:0 ✺
22.10.22	Crawley Town - Mansfield Town	3:2 ✺
15.10.22	Mansfield Town - Walsall	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.03.22	Rochdale - Mansfield Town	0:1
18.09.21	Mansfield Town - Rochdale	1:1
English League Cup
08.08.17	Mansfield Town - Rochdale	0:1
English League Two
12.04.14	Mansfield Town - Rochdale	3:0
26.12.13	Rochdale - Mansfield Town	3:0

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