Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 26

Date: 7 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Haines A. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Newport County

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.55
	2.85	3.1	2.5
	2.95	3.1	2.55
	2.75	3.05	2.55
	2.93	3.15	2.67
	2.8	3.1	2.55
	2.91	3.13	2.69	Watch
	2.75	3.05	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.58)	3.11 ↓ (3.13)	2.58 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
33.1%

Draw
30.3%

Newport County
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.4%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.8%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	20%	66.7%

Rochdale - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Newport will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (22.77%), has project points - 41, has currently - 16, has a chance of relegated (45%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Newport has the most likely position - 19 (12.12%), has project points - 54, has currently - 25, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 7, small importance 28, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Rochdale has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Newport is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Newport will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
02.01.23	Barrow - Rochdale	0:0 ✺
29.12.22	Doncaster Rovers - Rochdale	4:3 ✺
26.12.22	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2 ✺
03.12.22	Rochdale - Harrogate Town	1:4 ✺
19.11.22	Sutton United - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Newport County
English League Two
02.01.23	Newport County - Crawley Town	2:2 ✺
30.12.22	Newport County - Leyton Orient	0:0 ✺
26.12.22	AFC Wimbledon - Newport County	1:1 ✺
10.12.22	Newport County - Doncaster Rovers	0:1 ✺
02.12.22	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.10.22	Newport County - Rochdale	0:1
07.05.22	Newport County - Rochdale	0:2
18.12.21	Rochdale - Newport County	3:0
03.05.14	Newport County - Rochdale	2:1
12.10.13	Rochdale - Newport County	3:0

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