Match Info

Serie A - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Roma		Lazio

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	6.5	Watch
	1.55	4.15	6.4	Watch
	1.54	4.25	6.8
	1.56	4.17	6.73	Watch
	1.5	3.8	6.5
	1.55	4.23	6.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.62)	4.12 ↑ (4.07)	6.61 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
62.3%

Draw
23.2%

Lazio
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

23.3%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

22.6%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.8%	8.7%	6.5%

Roma - Lazio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 1 - 50%). Lazio (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Roma (1.86) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Roma will win (39 of 46 users predict this - 84.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.4% – 95.16%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 3 - 50%). Lazio (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 19. Celik Z. 4. Cristante B. (C) 8. El Aynaoui N. 43. Wesley Franca 21. Dybala P. 61. Pisilli N. 14. Malen D.	55. Furlanetto A. (G) 77. Marusic A. (C) 34. Gila M. 25. Provstgaard O. 17. Tavares N. 24. Taylor K. 6. Rovella N. 26. Basic T. 22. Cancellieri M. 19. Dia B. 14. Noslin T.
Substitutes
3. Angelino 70. De Marzi G. (G) 9. Dovbyk A. 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M. 12. Tsimikas K. 78. Vaz R. 24. Ziolkowski J.	21. Belahyane R. 32. Cataldi D. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 99. Giacomone G. (G) 2. Gigot S. 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 29. Lazzari M. 27. Maldini D. 72. Pannozzo N. (G) 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 28. Przyborek A. 20. Ratkov P.
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Taylor K. 🟨,
37', Ndicka E. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
40', 1 - 0, Mancini G. ⚽, Pisilli N. (A),
42', Hermoso M. 🟨,
42', Cancellieri M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pisilli N. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
62', Dia B. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
62', Taylor K. ↓, Dele-Bashiru F. ↑,
64', Tavares N. 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Mancini G. ⚽, Dybala P. (A),
70', Wesley Franca 🟥,
70', Rovella N. 🟥,
71', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
79', Noslin T. ↓, Pedro ↑,
79', Marusic A. ↓, Lazzari M. ↑,
83', Malen D. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
83', Mancini G. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
85', El Shaarawy S. 🟨,
88', Dybala P. ↓, Dovbyk A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3.

Roma has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lazio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Roma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Roma is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Roma: Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Lazio: Provedel I. (Shoulder Injury) Romagnoli A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Roma: Zaragoza B. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Roma will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Roma won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Lazio: 0.93%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
10.05.26	Parma - Roma	2:3 ✺
04.05.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
25.04.26	Bologna - Roma	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Roma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Roma - Pisa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWTW
- SS Lazio
Coppa Italia
13.05.26	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:3 ✺
04.05.26	Cremonese - Lazio	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Lazio - Udinese	3:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
22.04.26	Atalanta - Lazio	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Lazio - Roma	0:1
13.04.25	Lazio - Roma	1:1
05.01.25	Roma - Lazio	2:0
06.04.24	Roma - Lazio	1:0
Coppa Italia
10.01.24	Lazio - Roma	1:0
Italian Serie A
12.11.23	Lazio - Roma	0:0
19.03.23	Lazio - Roma	1:0

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