Match Info

Serie A - Round 34

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bologna		Roma

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.18
	3.58	3.35	2.25
	3.53	3.31	2.19	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.05
	3.88	3.26	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (2.91)	3.25 ↓ (3.27)	2.15 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
26.1%

Draw
29.5%

Roma
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.1%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bologna's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bologna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	45.8%	41.7%

Bologna - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 3 - 13%). Roma will win (votes: 9 - 39.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ravaglia F. (G) 5. Fauske Helland E. 26. Lucumi J. 14. Heggem T. 17. Joao Mario 8. Freuler R. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 33. Miranda J. 7. Orsolini R. 11. Rowe J. 9. Castro S.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. (C) 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 19. Celik Z. 8. El Aynaoui N. 4. Cristante B. 43. Wesley Franca 18. Soule M. 61. Pisilli N. 14. Malen D.
Substitutes
28. Cambiaghi N. 73. Castaldo F. 29. De Silvestri L. 30. Dominguez B. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 22. Lykogiannis C. 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 25. Pessina M. (G) 4. Pobega T. 23. Sohm S. 41. Vitik M. 20. Zortea N.	3. Angelino 70. De Marzi G. (G) 21. Dybala P. 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 2. Rensch D. 12. Tsimikas K. 78. Vaz R. 20. Venturino L. 97. Zaragoza B. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Malen D. ⚽, El Aynaoui N. (A),
45+1', 0 - 2, El Aynaoui N. ⚽, Malen D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Miranda J. ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
46', Castro S. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
46', Celik Z. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
46', Hermoso M. 🟨,
61', Hermoso M. ↓, Ghilardi D. ↑,
61', Soule M. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
66', Joao Mario ↓, De Silvestri L. ↑,
66', Rensch D. 🟨,
69', El Aynaoui N. 🟨,
77', Malen D. ↓, Dybala P. ↑,
77', Orsolini R. ↓, Cambiaghi N. ↑,
77', Fauske Helland E. ↓, Vitik M. ↑,
90+4', Pisilli N. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Roma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Roma has had a series of home games.

Roma might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bologna: Bernardeschi F. (Hip Injury) Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Casale N. (Injury) Dallinga T. (Injury) Skorupski L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Dovbyk A. (Groin Injury) Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury) Kone M. (Muscle Injury) Pellegrini Lo. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:28. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.1:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.32% Bologna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
19	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
19.04.26	Juventus - Bologna	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Aston Villa - Bologna	4:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.26	Cremonese - Bologna	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLW
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
18.04.26	Roma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Roma - Pisa	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Inter Milan - Roma	5:2 ✺
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET
12.03.26	Bologna - Roma	1:1
Italian Serie A
23.08.25	Roma - Bologna	1:0
12.01.25	Bologna - Roma	2:2
10.11.24	Roma - Bologna	2:3
22.04.24	Roma - Bologna	1:3
17.12.23	Bologna - Roma	2:0

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