Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium (Okinawa)


	Ryūkyū		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	4.33	4	1.57	Watch
	4.5	3.75	1.58
	4.75	4	1.65	Watch
	5.13	4.13	1.65
	5.13	4.14	1.62
	5	3.9	1.53
	4.92	4.1	1.62	Watch
	4.7	4.1	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↓ (5.1)	4.02 ↓ (4.05)	1.6 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
19.2%

Draw
23%

Cerezo Osaka
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

22.3%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

19.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Ryūkyū - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ryūkyū will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Higashi J. (G) 3. Mori Y. 14. Suzuki J. 4. Fujiharu H. 22. Uehara M. 24. Sato Y. 18. Hiramatsu S. 55. Koki Y. 8. Iwabuchi R. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 7. Shirai H.	1. Yang Han-Been (G) 2. Maikuma S. 23. Yamashita T. 28. Hubner J. 16. Okuda H. 4. Hirano Y. 7. Uejo S. 13. Kiyotake H. 17. Sakata R. 34. Yamada H. 19. Tameda H.
Substitutes
15. Araki R. 13. Iwamoto S. 41. Kagiyama K. 17. Masutani K. 32. Ogawa Y. 1. Rokutan Y. (G) 89. Takagi D. 19. Takayasu T. 23. Yamauchi S.	11. Croux J. 14. Funaki K. 8. Kagawa S. 38. Kitano S. 33. Nishio R. 48. Shibayama M. 31. Shimizu K. (G) 55. Vitor Bueno
Coaches
Kim J.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Hirano Y. ⚽,
17', Hubner J. 🟥,
23', Yamada H. ↓, Nishio R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hiramatsu S. ↓, Takayasu T. ↑,
46', Mori Y. ↓, Masutani K. ↑,
46', Maikuma S. ↓, Croux J. ↑,
58', Kiyotake H. ↓, Funaki K. ↑,
62', Iwabuchi R. ↓, Takagi D. ↑,
75', Shirai H. ↓, Iwamoto S. ↑,
75', Yamashita T. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
84', Fujiharu H. ↓, Ogawa Y. ↑,
88', Ogawa Y. 🟨,
90+4', Takagi D. 🟨,

Preview

Ryūkyū is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerezo Osaka is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ryūkyū could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cerezo Osaka is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
18.05.24	Ryūkyū - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:1 ✺
06.05.24	Osaka - Ryūkyū	0:1 ✺
03.05.24	Ryūkyū - Kamatamare Sanuki	0:0 ✺
28.04.24	Gainare Tottori - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
24.04.24	Ryūkyū - Gamba Osaka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWTLW
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
18.05.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	0:3 ✺
15.05.24	Machida Zelvia - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
11.05.24	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	1:4 ✺
06.05.24	Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
03.05.24	Cerezo Osaka - Consadole Sapporo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLT

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