Match Info

Paulista - Round 5

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Batalha M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	São Bernardo		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3	3.15	2.32	Watch
	3.3	3.31	2.25
	3.06	3.2	2.36	Watch
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.15	3.1	2.18	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.65)	3.16 ↓ (3.17)	2.26 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
29.6%

Draw
29.4%

Mirassol
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

29.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Bernardo's form might have worsened.

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.

São Bernardo - Mirassol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 21. Hugo Sanches 3. Helder Maciel 25. Gonzaga W. 6. Para (C) 8. Foguinho 17. Romisson 11. Pedro Vitor 28. Joao Paulo 27. Echapora 9. Felipe Garcia	22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo (C) 21. Jose Aldo 5. Yuri Lara 27. Galeano A. 33. Eduardo 77. Alesson 78. Renato Marques
Substitutes
97. Augusto 10. Fabricio Daniel 30. Junior Urso 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio 40. Matheus Nogueira (G) 5. Matheus Salustiano 19. Neto Costa 29. Pedrinho 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 20. Rodrigues F. 31. Victor Andrade	23. Alex Muralha (G) 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 26. Lucas Mugni 2. Lucas Oliveira 4. Luiz Otavio 9. Nathan Fogaca 11. Negueba 25. Neto Moura 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues 7. Shaylon
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Igor Formiga ⚽, Yuri Lara (A),
7', 0 - 2, Renato Marques ⚽,
9', Renato Marques 🟨,
21', Pedro Vitor 🟨,
37', Walter 🟨,
41', Jose Aldo 🟨,
45+1', Felipe Garcia 🟨,
45+1', Eduardo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Renato Marques ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
46', Jose Aldo ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
47', 0 - 3, Eduardo ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
51', Foguinho 🟨,
52', Pedro Vitor ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,
52', Echapora ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
53', Foguinho ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
63', Eduardo ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
71', Galeano A. ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
73', Yuri Lara ↓, Denilson ↑,
76', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
78', Romisson ↓, Junior Urso ↑,
78', Joao Paulo ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
90+1', 0 - 4, Everton Galdino ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 2.

Mirassol has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Alesson (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mirassol - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.26%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	São Bernardo - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	São Paulo - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	São Bernardo - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
11.10.25	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLWT
- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.12.25	Mirassol - Flamengo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.01.25	São Bernardo - Mirassol	1:2
10.03.24	Mirassol - São Bernardo	0:2
26.03.23	São Bernardo - Mirassol	1:0 penalties
26.01.23	Mirassol - São Bernardo	4:1
06.03.22	São Bernardo - Mirassol	1:1
22.02.17	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:1
16.03.13	Mirassol - São Bernardo	3:4

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