Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 12

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Batalha M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Max, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, TNT, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Bernardo		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.05	2.08
	3.84	3.34	2.04
	3.67	3.27	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.63	3.28	1.99
	3.4	3.05	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (3.33)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)	2.05 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
25.7%

Draw
29.1%

São Paulo
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

30.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

27.9%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

São Bernardo - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Junior Oliveira (G) 3. Helder Maciel 13. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 20. Emerson Santos 31. Lucas Lima 95. Para 87. Felipe Azevedo 30. Lucas Rian 77. Guilherme Queiroz	23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 6. Cedric 8. Oscar 29. Pablo Maia 18. Wendell 20. Marcos Antonio 7. Lucas Moura 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
6. Arthur Henrique 11. Daniel Fabricio 55. Echapora 35. Foguinho 21. Hugo Sanches 5. Kadi Silva 25. Pedro Carrerette 4. Rafael Forster 9. Rodolfo 17. Romisson 84. Vanderlei (G) 10. Vitinho	21. Bobadilla D. 33. Erick 28. Franco A. 34. Igor O. G. 2. Igor Vinicius 93. Jandrei (G) 9. Jonathan Calleri 48. Lucas Ferreira 10. Luciano 47. Matheus Alves 36. Patryck 49. Ryan Francisco
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', Augusto 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Andre Silva ⚽, Oscar (A),
27', Lucas Moura 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Wendell (A),
39', Pablo Maia ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Augusto ↓, Daniel Fabricio ↑,
46', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Rodolfo ↑,
46', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Romisson ↑,
57', 1 - 2, Daniel Fabricio (Pen),
60', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
63', Rodrigo Ferreira ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
70', Wendell ↓, Patryck ↑,
79', Lucas Rian ↓, Echapora ↑,
90', Andre Silva ↓, Jonathan Calleri ↑,
90', Oscar ↓, Erick ↑,
90', Lucas Moura ↓, Luciano ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Jonathan Calleri (A),

Preview

São Bernardo is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

São Paulo is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 2.

Recent matches São Bernardo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

São Paulo is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

São Paulo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:9 (average 1.2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
20.02.25	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	São Bernardo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWLT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	São Paulo - Velo Clube	3:3 ✺
10.02.25	São Paulo - Internacional de Limeira	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.02.23	São Paulo - São Bernardo	0:1
22.03.22	São Paulo - São Bernardo	4:1
29.03.17	São Bernardo - São Paulo	0:1
05.03.16	São Paulo - São Bernardo	1:3
20.02.14	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:1
20.03.13	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:2

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