Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
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China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	São Paulo		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.2	4.75
	1.88	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.97	3.2	4.62
	1.83	3.1	4.6	Watch
	1.88	3.33	4.82	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.69)	3.23 ↓ (3.5)	4.66 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
50.6%

Draw
29.2%

Atlético Nacional
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

26.4%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

27.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

São Paulo - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (C) 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 6. Soares C. 21. Bobadilla D. 20. Marcos Antonio 15. Rodriguinho 13. Diaz E. 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva	1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 80. Zapata J. 21. Campuzano J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 7. Moreno M. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
56. Bosshardt N. 19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 37. Henrique Carmo 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 42. Maik 29. Pablo Maia 36. Patryck 14. Tapia G. 50. Young (G)	19. Batista F. 30. Bauza J. 33. Caicedo R. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 37. Landazuri L. 38. Rengifo J. 26. Rivero E. 17. Salazar A. 29. Sarmiento A. 8. Uribe M.
Coaches
Crespo H.	Gandolfi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Andre Silva ⚽, Franco A. (A),
18', Cardona E. 🟨,
18', Soares C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Zapata J. 🟨,
56', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
60', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Pen),
70', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
70', Cardona E. 🟨,
74', Andre Silva ↓, Ferreira ↑,
78', Franco A. 🟨,
86', Moreno M. ↓, Bauza J. ↑,
88', Franco A. ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
90+7', Campuzano J. 🟨,
90+8', Roman A. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Uribe M. (Pen),
1, Lucas Moura (Pen),
2, Campuzano J. (Pen),
2, Marcos Antonio (Pen),
3, Morelos A. (Pen),
3, Luciano (Pen),
4, Tesillo W. (Pen),
4, Diaz E. (Pen),
5, Hinestroza M. (Pen),
5, Soares C. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.

São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Asprilla D. (Knee Injury) Batioja A. (Thigh Injury) Batista F. (Broken nose) Rosa J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Sport Recife - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Internacional RS - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TTWLW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
16.08.25	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
08.08.25	Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
05.08.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Atlético Nacional	0:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0
13.07.16	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	2:1
06.07.16	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	0:2
Copa Sudamericana
26.11.14	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	1:1 penalties
19.11.14	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	1:0
06.11.13	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0
30.10.13	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	3:2

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