Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 8 June 2023, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Morumbi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Gonzalez L. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV


	São Paulo		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8	Watch
	1.34	4.8	9
	1.34	4.8	9
	1.33	5.2	9.18
	1.3	4.5	9
	1.32	5.1	9.4	Watch
	1.34	4.8	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.43)	4.89 ↑ (4.31)	8.83 ↑ (7.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
70.2%

Draw
19.2%

Deportes Tolima
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

21.6%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

20.8%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

São Paulo - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 13. Rafinha 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Lucas Beraldo 38. Caio Paulista 29. Pablo Maia 20. Gabriel Neves 10. Luciano 31. Juan 15. Michel Araujo 9. Jonathan Calleri	1. Neto Volpi (G) 4. Riascos L. 21. Arboleda J. 23. Cuenu J. 20. Hernandez J. 14. Rios J. D. (C) 15. Nieto J. P. 18. Arango E. 10. Guzman Y. 33. Lucumi J. 27. Herazo D.
Substitutes
7. Alisson 4. Diego Costa 28. Franco A. 8. Luan 32. Marcos Paulo 45. Nathan Mendes 36. Patryck 50. Young (G)	26. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 34. Bone F. 30. Gil Hurtado B. 5. Mera J. 25. Perez K. 6. Trujillo C. 17. Valencia J. 12. Vargas Cortes C. (G)
Coaches
Junior D.	Real J. C.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Deportes Tolima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Paulo is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
04.06.23	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.06.23	São Paulo - Sport Recife	2:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.05.23	São Paulo - Goiás	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.05.23	Academia Puerto Cabello - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW
- Deportes Tolima
Copa Sudamericana
24.05.23	Tigre - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
17.05.23	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	2:2 ✺
13.05.23	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Deportes Tolima - Alianza Valledupar	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.05.23	Deportes Tolima - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
02.05.23	Deportes Tolima - São Paulo	0:0

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