Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	São Paulo		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	7	Watch
	1.6	3.6	6
	1.65	3.5	5.95	Watch
	1.64	3.48	6.67
	1.65	3.42	6.54	Watch
	1.6	3.5	6	Watch
	1.64	3.59	6.53	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.58)	3.49 ↓ (3.58)	6.33 ↓ (6.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
57.9%

Draw
27.2%

Libertad Asuncion
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

26.4%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

26.2%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Libertad (4.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Libertad (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 50%). Libertad (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 6. Soares C. 22. Ruan Tressoldi 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 20. Marcos Antonio 25. Alisson 48. Lucas Ferreira 8. Oscar 11. Ferreira 17. Andre Silva	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 5. Viera D. 31. Gutierrez T. 17. Espinoza M. 6. Campuzano A. 28. Fernandez M. 26. Caballero H. 21. Sanabria L. 14. Fretes A. 24. Santa C. R. (C)
Substitutes
21. Bobadilla D. 32. Ferraresi N. 93. Jandrei (G) 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 47. Matheus Alves 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 15. Rodriguinho 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell	11. Aguilar G. 20. Alcaraz A. 3. Caceres M. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 7. Cardozo O. 18. Franco I. 27. Jacquet M. 22. Martinez H. 10. Melgarejo L. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Troche A. 23. Villalba P.
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Aquino S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Alisson 🟥,
39', Caballero H. 🟨,
45+2', Sanabria L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ruan Tressoldi ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
57', Sanabria L. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
57', Fretes A. ↓, Melgarejo L. ↑,
66', Oscar ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
66', Ferreira ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
67', Santa C. R. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
67', Fernandez M. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Aguilar G. ⚽, Ramirez I. (A),
77', Soares C. ↓, Luciano ↑,
85', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Lucca Marques ⚽, Pablo Maia (A),
90+2', Lucca Marques 🟨,
90+4', Campuzano A. ↓, Cardozo Lucena A. ↑,

Preview

São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Libertad has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, São Paulo is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Inactive) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion)

There will not play in Libertad: Cardozo Lucena A. (Inactive) Gimenez N. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Wendell (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Alianza Lima - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWTWT
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Libertad Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.05.25	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo	0:2

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