Match Info

Paulista - Round 4

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	São Paulo		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	6	Watch
	1.6	3.65	5.5
	1.6	3.83	5.65	Watch
	1.57	3.4	5
	1.56	3.5	5.78
	1.63	3.66	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.52)	3.61 ↓ (3.8)	5.6 ↓ (6.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
57.9%

Draw
25.6%

Portuguesa
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

24.6%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

São Paulo - Portuguesa Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 2. Toloi R. 4. Matheus Doria 56. Bosshardt N. 21. Soares C. 7. Lucas Moura 29. Pablo Maia 30. Felipe Negrucci 45. Lucca Marques 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri	1. Bruno Bertinato (G) 2. Joao Vitor 3. Gustavo Henrique 4. Eduardo Biazus 17. Caio Roque 8. Ze Vitor 20. Guilherme Portuga 10. Gabriel Pires 7. Ewerthon 21. Rene 19. Maceio
Substitutes
16. Bobadilla D. 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 13. Diaz E. 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 38. Hugo Leonardo 10. Luciano 8. Marcos Antonio 46. Pedro Ferreira 35. Sabino 14. Tapia G. 50. Young (G)	39. Carlos Eduardo 11. Cauari 33. Eric Botteghin 42. Gustavo Sciencia 5. Hudson 13. Igor Torres 12. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Kaue 91. Lohan 14. Marcelo Freitas 9. Matheus Cadorini 25. Matheus Cecchini
Coaches
Crespo H.	Fabio Matias

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Lucas Moura 🟨,
45+2', Gabriel Pires 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Felipe Negrucci ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Rene ⚽,
58', Lucas Moura ↓, Luciano ↑,
58', Pablo Maia ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
60', Ewerthon ↓, Igor Torres ↑,
64', Eduardo Biazus 🟨,
70', Lucca Marques ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
74', Gabriel Pires ↓, Hudson ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Pedro Ferreira (A),
78', Soares C. ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Rene (Penalty Awarded),
85', Ze Vitor ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
85', Joao Vitor ↓, Gustavo Sciencia ↑,
85', Caio Roque ↓, Eric Botteghin ↑,
89', 1 - 3, Maceio ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 3, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
90+2', Hudson 🟨,
90+5', Rene 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.

Recent performances by São Paulo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Paulo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Alisson (Inactive) Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Portuguesa: Lucas Hipolito (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Diaz E. (Hip Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	São Paulo - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	São Paulo - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLLW
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	Portuguesa - Mixto	1:1 penalties ✺
02.08.25	Mixto - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.25	Portuguesa - São Paulo	1:2
27.01.24	São Paulo - Portuguesa	1:0
26.01.23	São Paulo - Portuguesa	4:1
08.04.15	São Paulo - Portuguesa	3:0
15.02.14	São Paulo - Portuguesa	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
02.11.13	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:1
11.08.13	Portuguesa - São Paulo	2:1

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