Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	21:00	Globoplay, Premiere, SporTV
Ecuador	19:00	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	18:00	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	20:00	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.40	3.30	2.90
	2.30	3.20	3.05	Watch
	2.64	3.37	2.88
	2.22	3.38	3.32	Watch
	2.55	3.30	2.85
	2.50	3.28	2.97	Watch
	2.48	3.25	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.21)	3.29 ↓ (3.36)	2.94 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
38.7%

Draw
28.9%

Vasco da Gama
32.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

28.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.6%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97%	3%	0%

São Paulo - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 32 - 97%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 91.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 2. Toloi R. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Newton 32. Pedro Lima 16. Bobadilla D. 8. Marcos Antonio 12. Iago Borduchi 37. Artur 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 55. Gabriel Pereira 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 3. Tche Tche (C) 5. Sosa S. 11. Gomez A. 22. Lescano A. 9. Colidio F. 19. Bruno Duarte
Substitutes
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 7. Lucas Moura 19. Lucas Ramon 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 43. Santana G. 27. Victor Sa 18. Wendell	28. Adson 45. Augusto L. 20. Brenner 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 8. Jair 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J. 4. Saldivia A. 23. Thiago Mendes
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Emanuel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Artur 🟨,
44', Colidio F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
46', Luciano ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
46', Toloi R. ↓, Sabino ↑,
54', Gabriel Pereira 🟨,
62', Bruno Duarte ↓, Brenner ↑,
68', 1 - 0, Artur ⚽, Pedro Lima (A),
71', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
74', Tche Tche ↓, Thiago Mendes ↑,
74', Sosa S. ↓, Jair ↑,
80', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Santana G. ↑,
89', Artur ↓, Luis Osorio ↑,
89', Lescano A. ↓, Adson ↑,
90+2', Iago Borduchi 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.

In recent outings, São Paulo has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Vasco is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

São Paulo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, São Paulo has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with São Paulo holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for São Paulo: Bosshardt N. (Inactive) Buta (Knee Injury) Djhordney (Yellow Cards) Duarte D. (Knee Injury) Ferreira (Injury) Luciano (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Vasco: Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Vasco: Colidio F. (Injury) Cuesta C. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, São Paulo has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:24 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for São Paulo against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 20:9 goals (averaging 2:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37:36	1	43
13	Vasco	31	10	8	13	39:45	-6	38

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.04%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Vasco da Gama - the odds 3.32 are the expected chance of winning is 28.65%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
10.10.26	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	São Paulo - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	São Paulo - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWT
- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
13.10.26	Boca Juniors - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.10.26	Vasco da Gama - Remo	0:0 ✺
07.10.26	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1
02.11.25	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	0:2
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3
16.10.24	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	3:0
22.06.24	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	4:1
07.10.23	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	0:0
20.05.23	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	4:2

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