Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 35

Date: 1 May 2023, Monday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Genoa

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.3	1.8	Watch
	4.8	3.25	1.8
	4.6	3.05	1.9
	5.28	3.29	1.86
	4.95	3.4	1.78	Watch
	4.7	3.3	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.93 ↑ (2.75)	3.27 ↑ (3)	1.82 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
19.2%

Draw
29%

Genoa
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

30.8%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30.3%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Südtirol-Alto Adige's form might have worsened.

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genoa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Südtirol-Alto Adige, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-15.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	20%	73.3%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Genoa will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 4 (49.92%), project points - 58, currently - 53, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of prom. playoffs (>99%), a small chance of promoted (15%), not chance of win league.

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (56.94%), project points - 74, currently - 67, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), a very good chance of promoted (98%), a chance of win league (39%).

This event has quality 39, importance 68, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Südtirol is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Genoa in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Genoa is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Südtirol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
22.04.23	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Ascoli - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
10.04.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	Cagliari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - SPAL	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TLLTW
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
22.04.23	Cittadella - Genoa	0:1 ✺
15.04.23	Genoa - Perugia	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Como - Genoa	2:2 ✺
31.03.23	Genoa - Reggina	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Brescia - Genoa	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Genoa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0
Club Friendly
20.07.16	Genoa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:0

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