Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 28

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Paterna D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Perugia

	1	X	2
	3	2.88	2.63	Watch
	3	2.8	2.6
	3	2.7	2.7
	2.95	2.7	2.65
	3.14	2.84	2.81
	2.97	2.96	2.61	Watch
	3	2.85	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.75)	2.82 ↓ (2.93)	2.67 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
31.3%

Draw
33.4%

Perugia
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

31.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

33%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	47.8%	17.4%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Perugia will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 4 (17.48%), has project points - 58, has currently - 44, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (80%), has a chance of promoted (17%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 15 (13.13%), has project points - 45, has currently - 30, has a chance of relegated (20%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 33, small importance 29, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Südtirol is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Perugia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Südtirol won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Südtirol won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
01.03.23	Benevento - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
25.02.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Palermo	1:1 ✺
18.02.23	Nuova Cosenza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
11.02.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Como	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Pisa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTTTW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.03.23	Perugia - Como	0:0 ✺
24.02.23	Pisa - Perugia	2:1 ✺
18.02.23	Perugia - Ternana	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Ascoli - Perugia	1:0 ✺
04.02.23	Perugia - Brescia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2
Coppa Italia
08.08.21	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
21.03.21	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0
29.11.20	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	1:1

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